考虑防御拓扑特征的暴恐事件演化博弈模型和仿真分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 04:13

  本文关键词：考虑防御拓扑特征的暴恐事件演化博弈模型和仿真分析　出处：《运筹与管理》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 恐怖主义 演化博弈 防御拓扑特征 仿真分析 演化稳定性

【摘要】：暴恐分子有意避开政府机关、机场等关键设施的严密防御范围,选择早市、火车站卖票口等尚未得到有效防御的人群密集场所发动袭击。本文考虑政府反恐力量防御拓扑特征,即政府反恐力量防控范围与恐怖分子发动攻击范围之间相离、相切、相交和相含等拓扑关系,构建了暴恐事件的演化博弈模型,分析多种情景下均衡稳定性,在Netlogo平台下对多种情景的理论结果进行社会模拟分析。结果表明:政府和恐怖分子行为演化均衡策略与政府防控范围、恐怖分子发动攻击范围、政府防控成本、政府防控收益等多种因素有关,随着政府进行有效防控的范围不断增加,恐怖分子选择袭击的可能性将不断减小,直到采取不攻击策略。
[Abstract]:The fear of violence molecules to avoid government offices, airports and other key facilities in the tight defense, choose the morning train station ticket port has not yet been effectively defense to crowded places to launch attacks. Considering the government anti-terrorism Forces Defense topological characteristics, namely the government anti-terrorism force control scope and terrorists launch phase, attack range between the tangent intersection and with such topological relations, constructs the evolutionary game model of storm events, analysis of stability of the equilibrium of a variety of scenarios, in the Netlogo platform for a variety of scenarios of social theory results by simulation analysis. The result shows that the government and the terrorist behavior evolution strategy and government control, terrorist attacks, prevention and control of the government the cost, income and other factors related to prevention and control of the government, with the government for effective prevention and control of increasing terrorist attacks may choose The sex will continue to decrease until the non attack strategy is taken.

【作者单位】： 东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院;大连理工大学系统工程研究所;辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271045,71571033,71503033,71602021)
【分类号】：D631.4;F224.32
【正文快照】： 0引言继美国“9·11”事件后,恐怖主义已经成为世界各国共同面临的重大挑战,并深刻影响了新世纪以来国际关系和世界政治格局的演变,“反恐”成为世界各国政府高度关注且亟待解决的问题。在一系列重大恐怖袭击事件愈演愈烈的过程中,恐怖袭击呈现出一些新的典型特征:长期预谋、，

本文编号：1358065