某地产项目并购风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 17:16

本文关键词：某地产项目并购风险管理研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年,由于房地产价格的持续上涨,国家加大了房地产调控的力度,调控手段从收紧地根、银根等传统手段,最近又通过加大对购房者购房资格审查、提高二套房首付比例以及利率调节方面等,提高业主购房的门槛。房地产开发也逐渐由利润丰厚的黄金时代转向利润空间被压缩的白银时代。在土地市场,开发企业通过招拍挂取得土地,动辄就是几十亿,极大的提高了房地产企业的进入门槛。日益增长的土地需求与不断提高的行业进入门槛,使得开发企业不得不尝试更多的土地获取的方式,而房地产并购必将成为地产企业土地储备、开辟新的领域的重要手段。房地产并购过程中的风险,使得房地产并购具有发生频率高、并购资金高,并购成功率低的特点。如何在并购过程中对风险进行有效的管理,成为房地产并购中最重要的一项工作。本文通过对并购背景情况的阐述,分析了房地产并购风险研究的现实意义。通过分析国内外风险管理研究的现状,提出了本文研究的主要内容以及研究遵循的技术路线。相关理论综述主要对房地产相关知识进行介绍,重点对风险管理和并购理论进行详细的阐述。本文站在并购方的角度,通过对某地产项目并购案例进行风险管理研究。首先对某地产项目并购背景进行了详细的阐述。接着主要介绍如何采用统计数据法、德尔菲法对某房地产并购过程中的风险因素进行识别,并根据专家反馈初步判断该项目并购面临六大主要的风险:政策风险、政府沟通风险、市场风险、整合风险、财务风险、法律风险。随后根据识别的风险因素建立了并购风险评价模型,采用层次分析法对地产项目并购的风险因素进行了定性与定量的分析,确定了并购过程中每一种风险因素对并购目标的影响权重。采用模糊综合评价法对风险子准则层的风险因素进行评判,就该类风险水平进行模糊综合评价,根据"最大隶属度"原则,形成项目总体风险因素的判断矩阵,得出本项目并购风险隶属于"风险较低"级别,可以进行收购的结论。最后针对不同风险因素的评价,通过风险回避、减少、转移或者自留的方法进行并购风险应对,达到对地产项目并购风险控制的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate prices continue to rise, the state has increased the real estate regulation, regulation and control from tightening to root, the money supply and other traditional means, most recently through the increase of property buyers purchase qualification, improve the two suites down payment and interest rate regulation, improve the threshold of the purchase of real estate owners. Developed gradually from the golden age to the silver age lucrative profit margins are compressed. In the land market, the development of enterprises linked to access to land through the auction, is frequently billions, which greatly improves the real estate enterprises to enter the threshold. The growing demand for land and increase the threshold to enter the industry, making the development of enterprises have to try more land acquisition, real estate mergers and acquisitions will become a real estate enterprise land reserve, an important means to open up new areas. The risk of the real estate in the process of mergers and acquisitions, The real estate acquisition with a high frequency and high success rate of mergers and acquisition of funds, low characteristics. How to effectively manage the risk in the process of mergers and acquisitions, has become the most important work in the real estate acquisition. Based on the background of mergers and acquisitions, analyzes the practical significance of research on the risk of real estate acquisition. By analyzing the current situation of risk management at home and abroad, put forward the technical route to follow the main contents of this paper and the related theory research. Mainly on real estate related knowledge are introduced in detail, focus on risk management and MampA theory. This paper stands in the angle of the acquirer, based on a real estate project merger case research on risk management. Firstly, a real estate project acquisitions background in detail. Then mainly introduces how to use the statistical data of a real estate law, Delphy Fa The risk factors of production in the process of acquisition and recognition, according to expert feedback preliminary judgment of the M & A projects facing six major risks: policy risk, government communication risk, market risk, integration risk, financial risk, legal risk. Then the merger risk evaluation model is established according to the identification of risk factors, the qualitative and quantitative analysis the risk factors for acquisition of real estate projects by AHP, determine the weights of the acquisition process of each kind of risk factors on target. Evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the risk sub rule layer risk factors, the risk level of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, based on the maximum membership principle, form the judgment matrix for project risk factors, it is concluded that the project risk of merger and acquisition to belong to "low risk" level, can be acquired. Finally, according to the different risk conclusion Evaluation of factors, by reducing the risk avoidance, transfer or retention of the method, merger risk response, to mergers and acquisitions to control the risk of real estate projects.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.4;F271;F272.3

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