我国人口年龄结构对房地产市场价格变动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 19:26

本文关键词：我国人口年龄结构对房地产市场价格变动的影响研究　出处：《云南师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产产业作为关乎我国国计民生的重要产业,它不仅充当着我国国民经济发展的重要支柱,而且是我国民生工程的重要组成部分。自二十世纪八十年代以来,我国住房制度开始进行改革,我国房地产市场呈现了迅速发展的趋势,特别是从1998年以后,各地房地产市场无论从销量还是从价格上都呈现了迅速上涨的态势,但是也伴随着剧烈的波动。与此同时我国人口结构也发生了较大的转变,完成了由年轻型向老年型社会的过渡,随着老龄化程度的不断加深,少子化趋势日趋严重,我国人口问题逐渐凸显,经济生活的各个方面都受到了影响。为了更好的厘清我国近年来房地产市场上价格波动与人口年龄结构转变的关系,本文在已有研究的基础之上使用理论模型与实证工具对该问题进行了深入的研究。首先本文回顾了我国房地产市场的发展历程以及我国人口结构的转变历程,定性地分析了我国人口年龄结构变化与房地产市场价格波动的相互关系;其次选取2000~2015年间我国房地产市场商品房平均销售价格为被解释变量,选取少儿抚养比和老年抚养比为解释变量,同时加入相关控制变量,构建面板模型进行回归分析,结果发现:就全国范围内,少年抚养比以及老年抚养比均与我国房地产市场价格呈现反方向变动关系,进一步证明了“资产消融”假说在我国房地产市场上成立的事实。最后在本文研究结论的基础上,对我国政府调控房地产市场价格波动,维持我国房地产市场稳健运行提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry as an important industry in our country is beneficial to the people's livelihood not only serves as, it is an important pillar of our national economy, and is an important part of the project of people's livelihood in China. Since 1980s, China's housing system reform began, China's real estate market presents the trend of rapid development, especially since 1998 after all, the real estate market in terms of sales or from the price showed a rapid rising trend, but also accompanied by dramatic fluctuations. At the same time, China's population structure has undergone great changes, completed the transition from young to old age society, along with the deepening of the aging, fewer children the trend is becoming more and more serious, the population of our country gradually appeared, all aspects of economic life are affected. In order to better clarify the Chinese real estate market prices in recent years The relationship between changes in volatility and the age structure of the population, the use of theoretical models and empirical tools based on the existing research carried out in-depth research on this problem. Firstly, this paper reviews the development history of China's real estate market and the transformation process of China's population structure, qualitative analyzed the relationship between the change and real age the structure of China's real estate market price fluctuation; secondly choose the average sales price of 2000~2015 years, China's real estate market commercial housing as the explanatory variable, select the dependency ratio of children and the elderly dependency ratio as explanatory variables, and adding control variables to construct the regression analysis, panel model results: all across the country, raising children ratio and the elderly dependency ratio were presented with China's real estate market price changes in the opposite direction, it is further proved that the "asset meltdown" hypothesis in China's real estate market Finally, based on the conclusions of this paper, we put forward relevant policy recommendations for our government to control the real estate market price fluctuations and maintain the robust operation of China's real estate market.

【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.23

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