低碳城市重点行业碳排放监控与优化决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 12:23

本文关键词：低碳城市重点行业碳排放监控与优化决策研究　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于人类长期使用化石能源,导致了严重的气候变化问题,这已经成为影响人类社会发展的重要因素之一。1997在日本京都召开的《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方第三次会议上通过了旨在限制发达国家温室气体排放量以抑制全球变暖的《京都议定书》,承担减排义务的发达国家为了减少本国温室气体排放,加大了对可再生能源的开发和使用。我国在2009年丹麦哥本哈根全球气候大会上,明确承诺到2020年全国万元GDP二氧化碳排放强度比2005年降低40%-45%。为了达到这一目标,我国政府作出了加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的重大战略决策。城市是我国减少温室气体排放最具潜力的领域,因此也提出了建设低碳城市这一举措。从最初的“中国低碳城市发展项目”首批两个试点城市,到中国8个低碳试点城市,再到创建十佳低碳城市,至今低碳城市的试点单位已达到34个。在建设低碳城市的过程中,各试点城市选取不同的突破口,加快低碳型支柱产业的发展,初步形成了以低碳经济为主导的产业结构,二氧化碳排放不断降低。现在正全面推进低碳城市建设,在电力、交通,建筑、工业等方面实现低碳化运行,在保证人们生活水平不断提高的基础上,二氧化碳排放强度进一步降低。本文针对在低碳城市建设过程中碳排放比较突出的三个部门：电力生产、交通运输业和水泥制造业进行了研究。在电力部门的碳排放研究中,首先分析了我国电力系统的发展概况,根据电力行业C02排放的核算方法和基于生命周期分析法的煤电链碳排放计量模型,结合实例对两座发电厂的碳排放进行了准确计量,在此基础上,对城市电力碳排放进行了预测研究,同时基于情景分析法对电力碳排放进行了估算,最后提出了电力系统低碳化发展的建议。在对交通运输业二氧化碳排放研究中,首先基于生命周期理论对城市交通体系的碳排放结构进行了分析,进而探讨了交通运输业的能耗水平和碳排放现状与需求,然后通过系统动力学模型分析了交通运输业碳排放的影响因素,同时对未来若干年交通运输业的碳排放水平进行了预测,建立了低碳目标下的城市交通结构优化的模型,最后对交通运输业实现低碳发展提出了一些建议。在对水泥行业二氧化碳研究中,首先根据水泥行业的生产工艺流程,分析了影响C02排放的因素,根据水泥生产过程中二氧化碳排放的计量方法,对水泥工业碳排放进行了准确计量,接着探讨了水泥工业减少碳排放的路径和方法,并基于情景分析法对水泥行业的C02排放进行了预测研究,最后提出了其实现低碳化发展的建议。之后,论文又对工业碳排放系统进行了系统动力学研究和分析,找出了影响工业碳排放和碳排放强度的关键因素,并进行了情景仿真,根据仿真结果提出了一些低碳建议。在对上述研究的基础上,初步建立了低碳城市建设碳排放监测系统,通过这个系统和建立的相应数据库,可以定期将碳排放基础数据输入系统,并对上述几个部门(还可以扩展)的碳排放情况进行监控。同时以保定市为例,对相关模型进行检验,并为实现低碳化发展提出了减排目标及未来的低碳城市规划做出了展望。
[Abstract]:The long-term use of fossil fuels, has led to serious climate change, which has become the important factor influencing the development of human society of.1997 in Kyoto Japan "the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change treaty > Fang Disan meeting by the developed countries to limit greenhouse gas emissions to curb global warming" Kyoto Protocol >, developed countries to undertake emission reduction obligations in order to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, increase the development and use of renewable energy in China. In 2009 the Copenhagen climate conference, a clear commitment to the 2020 national GDP million carbon dioxide emission intensity of 40%-45%. in order to achieve this goal lower than in 2005, the Chinese government has made to speed up the construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society of great strategic decision. The city is in China to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the most potential Therefore, also put forward the measures of the construction of low carbon city. From the two pilot city first "low carbon city Chinese development project" first, to China 8 low carbon pilot city, to create ten low carbon city, low carbon city since the pilot unit has reached 34 in the construction of low. Carbon city in the process of the pilot city to choose different breakthrough, to accelerate the development of low carbon industry, the initial formation of the industrial structure with low carbon economy, carbon dioxide emissions continue to decrease. It comprehensively promote the construction of low-carbon city, in power, transportation, construction, industry and other aspects to achieve low-carbon operation and in the foundation to ensure the continuous improvement of people's living standard, to further reduce carbon dioxide emissions. According to the three departments in the process of low carbon city construction in carbon emissions more prominent: power production, transportation and cement The manufacturing industry is studied. In the research of carbon emissions in the power sector, first analyzes the development situation of China's electric power system, according to the calculation method of the power industry C02 emissions and coal chain carbon emissions measurement model based on life cycle analysis method, combined with examples of carbon emissions of two plants were measured accurately, this on the basis of the power of City carbon emissions prediction research, and scenario analysis to estimate the power of carbon emission based on the method, this paper puts forward some suggestions of developing low carbon power system. In the research of transportation industry carbon dioxide emissions, carbon emissions based on the structure of the life cycle theory of city traffic system are analyzed then, discusses the transportation energy consumption and carbon emission status and demand, and carbon emissions of transportation factors were analyzed by the system dynamics model, the same The transportation industry in the coming years the level of carbon emissions were predicted, establishes the optimization target under the low carbon city traffic structure model, and finally to the transportation industry to achieve low carbon development and put forward some suggestions. In the research of carbon dioxide in the cement industry, according to the production process of the cement industry, analyzes the influence of according to the factors of C02 emission measurement method of carbon dioxide emissions in the cement production process, the carbon emissions of cement industry for accurate measurement, and then discusses the ways and methods of cement industry reduce carbon emissions, and C02 emissions based on scenario analysis method for the cement industry to predict research, finally puts forward the suggestions to realize low-carbon development. After the paper has carried on the research and analysis of system dynamics on industrial carbon emission system, identify the impact of key industrial carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity factors, And the scene simulation, according to simulation results and put forward some suggestions. Low carbon based on the above research, preliminary established the construction of low carbon city carbon emissions monitoring system, through the system and the corresponding database, regular carbon emissions based data input system, and the several departments (can also be extended) monitoring of carbon emissions. At the same time, taking Baoding city as an example, to verify the model, and to achieve low-carbon development put forward the targets and the future prospects of low-carbon city planning.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X322;F299.2

【相似文献】