制造业农民工劳动力供给与需求研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 22:22

本文关键词：制造业农民工劳动力供给与需求研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前中国制造业在转型升级的过程中出现了总产值增长率波动较大,甚至严重下滑的趋势。农民工作为制造业工人力量的中坚群体,一方面“民工荒”的问题年年层出不穷,而另一方面农民工群体数量庞大,还存在相当多的一部分农村潜在转移劳动力,农民工劳动力供给是否达到“刘易斯拐点”存在争议。因此,深入研究中国制造业农民工劳动力供给与需求,探索通过优化农民工劳动力供给,使其与制造业实际需求相匹配具有较强的现实意义。针对上述问题,本文着眼于当前制造业普遍存在的“民工荒”问题,深入分析了其形成的原因。文章从制造业农民工的供给与需求着手,运用定性与定量相结合的研究方法,分别从需求端和供给端分析了农民工的数量与结构性问题。首先,利用定性分析探究了制造业农民工劳动力供需的结构性问题。文章分析了中国制造业发展并将制造业分为劳动密集型制造业和资本密集型制造业进行对比。同时对农民工群体自身特征,包括年龄、性别、文化程度以及农民工群体输出地特征、整体规模进行了深入分析。其次,利用实证分析探究了制造业农民工劳动力供需的数量问题。本文通过主成分分析法,针对制造业发展与对工人的需求进行了实证研究;通过生产函数法以及比较劳动生产率法对我国现有潜在农村剩余可转移劳动力进行了估计。实证结果显示,当前制造业对农民工劳动力需求在逐步减少,而农村却存在大量的可转移劳动力,即制造业农民工劳动力仍处于供大于求的状态,并没有达到“刘易斯拐点”。但是,无论是制造业农民工劳动力的需求端还是供给端,都相应存在严重的结构性问题,从而导致了在数量上供大于求的现状下却仍存在“民工荒”这一矛盾性问题。其中,需求端的结构性问题包括当前农民工社会保障不足、工资拖欠、同工不同酬等;供给端的结构性问题包括农村劳动力区域转移不平衡、受教育程度低(“技工荒”)等。由此本文得出以下结论:目前制造业存在层出不穷的“民工荒”问题,并不是劳动力供给到了“刘易斯拐点”,也并不是“人口红利”消失,其实质主要是制造业农民工劳动力供需失衡下的“技工荒”。结构性失业成为了制造业农民工劳动力供给与需求的主要矛盾。农民工群体仍然处于劳动力市场分割中的次要劳动力市场。
[Abstract]:The current China manufacturing output growth rate fluctuations in the process of transformation and upgrading, and even serious decline. As the backbone of migrant workers group manufacturing workers in power, a "labor shortage" every year and on the other hand, emerge in an endless stream, the number of migrant workers in large groups, there is a part of the rural areas the potential transfer of labor, whether the labor supply of migrant workers reached the "Lewis turning point" controversial. Therefore, in-depth study of China manufacturing labor supply and demand of migrant workers, migrant workers labor force supply exploration through the optimization, the actual demand of the manufacturing industry, has a strong practical significance. In view of the above questions, this article focuses on the current manufacturing industry exists the "labor shortage" problem, in-depth analysis of the reasons for its formation. From the supply and demand of manufacturing migrant workers to use Both qualitative and quantitative methods, respectively, from the demand side and the supply side analysis of the number of migrant workers and structural problems. Firstly, explores the structural problems of manufacturing migrant workers labor supply and demand by means of qualitative analysis. This paper analyzes the development of China manufacturing industry and manufacturing industry into labor-intensive manufacturing and capital intensive manufacturing industry were compared. At the same time, migrant workers groups have their own characteristics, including age, gender, culture degree and output of migrant workers, the overall size is analyzed. Secondly, the number of problems by empirical analysis of manufacturing migrant workers labor supply and demand. This paper through principal component analysis, aiming at the development of manufacturing industry and the demand for workers the empirical research; by the production function method and comparative labor productivity of China's rural surplus labor transfer the existing potential of Estimated. The empirical results show that the manufacturing of migrant workers labor demand gradually reduced, but there is a lot of the rural labor transfer, namely manufacturing migrant workers labor is still in a state of oversupply, and has reached the "Lewis turning point". However, whether it is manufacturing migrant workers labor demand side and the supply side. There are some serious structural problems, resulting in oversupply of the status of the number but there are still "the problem of shortage of migrant workers" this contradiction. Among them, the structural problems of the demand side including the current shortage of migrant workers social security arrears of wages, unequal pay and other structural problems; the supply side including rural areas labor transfer is not balanced, low level of Education ("mechanic shortage"). This paper draws the following conclusions: the current manufacturing "workers shortage" emerge in an endless stream, and Not the labor supply to the "Lewis turning point", and not "demographic dividend" disappeared, its essence mainly manufacturing migrant workers labor supply and demand imbalance under the "mechanic shortage". The structural unemployment has become a major contradiction between the supply and demand of labor force in the manufacturing industry of migrant workers. A group of migrant workers still in the secondary labor market segmentation in the labor market.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F424;F323.6;F249.2

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