基于DPSIR模型的宁夏农业水土资源安全评价

发布时间：2018-01-14 02:31

本文关键词：基于DPSIR模型的宁夏农业水土资源安全评价　出处：《浙江农业学报》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于DPSIR模型框架,构建农业水土资源安全评价指标体系,采用结构方程模型对宁夏地区农业水土资源安全进行定量评价,探讨宁夏农业水土资源发展路径。结果表明:2004—2014年宁夏农业水土资源安全变化过程中,驱动力指数和状态指数呈稳步上升态势,分别由2004年的-1.172和-1.067上升到2014年的1.754和1.540;压力指数总体下降趋势明显,但压力指数是个负向指标,表明水土资源承受的压力越来越大;宁夏环境对全球气候变化的反应敏感,影响指数没有明显规律;响应指数除2013年异常外,其余年份平稳上升。宁夏地区2004—2014年农业水土资源安全指数大体可分为3个阶段:2004—2008年,安全指数从-0.434变化到0.091,虽然5 a中有3 a都处于低级,但整体呈上升态势;2008—2010年从0.091下降到-0.344,形势不容乐观;2010—2014年,由-0.344上升到0.659,安全指数中级以上年份达到80%。灰色预测结果显示,2015—2020年宁夏地区农业水土资源安全潜力呈稳步上升趋势,有望由2015年的0.523提高到2020年的1.204,安全指数均为高级。虽然宁夏农业水土资源安全水平实现了等级跨越,但目前尚处于起步阶段,仍有极大的提升空间。
[Abstract]:Based on the framework of DPSIR model, the evaluation index system of agricultural soil and water resources security was constructed, and the quantitative evaluation of agricultural water and soil resources safety in Ningxia was carried out by using structural equation model. The development path of agricultural soil and water resources in Ningxia was discussed. The results showed that the driving force index and the state index were rising steadily during the change of agricultural soil and water resources security in Ningxia from 2004 to 2014. It increased from -1.172 and -1.067 on 2004 to 1.754 and 1.540 on 2014, respectively. The general downward trend of the pressure index is obvious, but the pressure index is a negative index, which indicates that the pressure on the soil and water resources is increasing. Ningxia's environmental response to global climate change is sensitive, and the impact index has no obvious regularity. Except for the anomaly in 2013, the index of agricultural soil and water resources safety in Ningxia region from 2004 to 2014 can be divided into three stages: 2004-2008. The safety index changed from -0.434 to 0.091. Although in 3 years of 5 years, the safety index was in a low level, but the whole index was on the rise. In 2008-2010, the situation declined from 0.091 to -0.344, and the situation is not optimistic. In 2010-2014, it rose from -0.344 to 0.659, and the safety index reached 80 in years above the intermediate level. The grey forecast shows that. From 2015 to 2020, the potential of agricultural soil and water resources safety in Ningxia is increasing steadily, which is expected to increase from 0.523 on 2015 to 1.204 on 2020. Although the safety level of agricultural soil and water resources in Ningxia has achieved a grade leap, it is still in its infancy, and there is still great room for improvement.
【作者单位】：宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院;旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心;西北退化生态系统恢复与重建教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51169021,51569022)
【分类号】：F224;F323.2
【正文快照】： 农业水土资源,即农业生产所利用的水资源和耕地资源,是区域生态经济系统中的基础性和敏感性因子,不仅是人类生产与生活的基本自然资源,而且还是农业生产与粮食安全的支撑和保障[1]。目前,工业化和城市化发展挤占农业水土资源的态势短期内难以逆转,已经明显不足的水土资源还要

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