新常态下地方经济增长质量监测预警的理论与方法

发布时间：2018-01-14 15:42

本文关键词：新常态下地方经济增长质量监测预警的理论与方法　出处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：构建新常态下地方经济增长质量监测预警系统,在评价当前经济增长质量的运行状态、准确预测未来经济发展变化趋势的基础上,更侧重于对中国地方经济增长质量进行监测和预警,以及时把控未来经济的变动方向,对地方经济增长质量的提高起到良性指示作用。本文首先给予宏观经济预警系统新的视角,基于经济增长的质量和效益多维度进行监测预警,区别于传统的经济增长速度和数量。其次,明确了经济增长质量监测预警的价值判断和内在机理,对经济增长质量监测预警系统的基本框架做出相应的界定。最后,从经济增长质量的动态监测、趋势预测、识别预警以及政策选择四大模块构建新常态下地方经济增长质量的监测预警系统,提供各模块的方法选择,并以陕西省为例进行演示分析和指数模拟。
[Abstract]:Build the local economic growth quality monitoring and warning system under the new normal, on the basis of evaluating the current economic growth quality and accurately predicting the future economic development and change trend. More emphasis on the quality of local economic growth in China to monitor and early warning, in order to control the future direction of economic change. This paper first gives a new perspective of macroeconomic early warning system, based on the quality and efficiency of economic growth multi-dimensional monitoring and early warning. It is different from the traditional economic growth speed and quantity. Secondly, it clarifies the value judgment and internal mechanism of economic growth quality monitoring and warning. The basic framework of economic growth quality monitoring and early warning system is defined. Finally, from the dynamic monitoring of economic growth quality, trend prediction. Four modules of early warning and policy selection are used to construct the monitoring and warning system for the quality of local economic growth under the new normal condition, and to provide the method choice for each module, and take Shaanxi Province as an example for demonstration analysis and index simulation.
【作者单位】：西北大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目《新常态下地方经济增长质量和效益的监测预警系统和政策支撑体系构建研究》(15ZDA012) 教育部哲学社会科学发展报告项目《中国经济增长质量报告》(13JBGP014) 陕西高校人文社会科学青年英才支持计划项目(HSSTP201401)
【分类号】：F127;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言地方经济发展在国民经济发展中具有重要的地位,中央政府报告也多次强调要致力于地方经济增长的质量与效益提高。然而,在新常态的背景下,经济增速放缓,结构性矛盾突出,产能过剩严重等问题阻碍着地方经济的合理转型,而地方政府作为中国市场经济发展的一个特殊的经济主体

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