中国城市化与空气环境的相互作用关系及EKC检验

发布时间：2018-01-20 20:12

  本文关键词： 城市化 空气环境 空气质量 环境库兹涅茨曲线 空间计量　出处：《中国地质大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：空气污染作为全球性的主要环境污染问题之一,日益受到学界、社会和各国政府的共同关注。自1978年,中国改革开放以来的快速经济发展、能源效率、污染排放,严重加剧了包括空气污染在内的生态环境改变,并导致雾霾等空气污染事件成为了快速城市化过程中的“新常态”。同时,处在产业转型升级过程中的中国,伴随“京津冀协同发展”、“一带一路建设”、“长江经济带发展”三大战略的推进,新型工业化道路、区域协调发展、生态文明建设对城市空气环境质量改善提出了新的要求。因此,城市化与环境空气的相互作用关系研究,不仅是新背景下城市化与生态环境耦合作用关系研究的重要延伸,也是引导未来城市可持续发展和环境政策制定的重要依据。面对一个经济高速增长、城市化快速提升但环境日趋恶化的新常态,在中国,空气环境污染和城市经济增长、城市发展之间究竟有什么样的关系?城市化的快速发展会导致空气环境污染日益恶化,还是最终有可能带来空气环境的改善,两者的相互作用机理如何?值得我们进一步深入探讨。基于此,本文以中国地级及以上城市为主要研究对象(依据指标数据的连续性共筛选出274个城市),分析2004-2013年共10年间的SO2、NO2、PM10三种常规污染物的空间分布特征及演化趋势,并选取人口城镇化率、城市人口规模、建成区面积和第二产业比重等四个表征城市社会经济发展水平的指标来判定其对空气质量的影响,进而以城市化率和人均GDP为主解释变量,分别构建普遍面板回归模型和空间计量面板模型进行城市化对空气环境影响的EKC检验；最后,利用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)模型和耦合协调模型(CCDM)探讨了城市化与空气环境两个系统之间的响应规律和耦合协调模式,并为我国新型城镇化的发展提出了相应建议。论文的主要工作和取得的结论如下：(1)系统揭示了三种主要空气污染物(SO2、NO2、PM10)在274个地级市上的10年时空演化格局。从时间演化序列来看,全国274个城市空气环境质量总体呈现先减缓又加重的时序演化趋势,不同污染物之间的演化特征有较大差异,PM1o是三种空气污染中较为普遍且危害较大的污染物。Daniel趋势检验结果显示,全国城市空气质量指数IAQI总体上呈下降趋势(有相对好转趋势,改善城市主要集中在沿海地区)γs秩相关系数为-0.648(0.05水平上显著)。从区域空间分布来看,城市空气环境质量分布呈现出显著的空间异质性,且城市空气污染空间格局未发生明显变化,华北地区(京津冀)及山东部分城市是我国空气污染相对严重地区,也是当前大气污染协同防治的关键区域。其中,SO2空气质量有明显改善,污染严重的地区仅零星分布在京津冀和山东的部分地区,西南地区的污染得到有效控制；NO2污染并没有显著改善,区域污染格局也未发生根本性变化,华北地区、山东、长三角是我国NO2主要污染区域；全国PM10污染呈现先减缓又加重的趋势,重污染区域范围略有减小,并呈现出由集中连片分布变的态势(华北的京津冀及山东、西北的新疆甘肃),表明近十年来,我国对PM10的控制并没有取得显著性的改善。(2)比较分析了以人均GDP和以城市化率为主导的空气环境库兹涅茨曲线演化规律。在对面板数据进行平稳性检验后,运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型,将4个反映环境空气质量指标与人均GDP等6个反映城市(化)发展的指标进行回归拟合。结果发现：不管是在GEKC体系,还是UEKC体系中,我国城市(化)发展和空气环境质量之间的关系并没有呈现经典的倒U型曲线,不同的污染物呈现的演化曲线特征不同。10年间,随着城市经济的发展,城市空气中SO2浓度呈现下降的趋势,并到达改善拐点,符合倒“N”型曲线(GEKC的恶化拐点和改善拐点分别为15444元和74015元,在UEKC体系中恶化拐点和改善拐点分别为25.7%和59.9%的城市化率)；而对于NO2、PM10浓度及空气质量综合指数,10年间与城市经济发展之间呈“U”型关系,并处于空气环境恶化的上升阶段,即现阶段呈现污染继续加重的态势(两个体系中的恶化拐点依次为19909、40759、44356元和8.8%、45.75%、61%的城市化率),并且没有到改善拐点的出现。随着“十二五”以来国家对氮氧化物的总量减排的控制,NO2有迎来改善拐点的趋势,但PM10的污染将持续恶化加重,并在新空气质量标准实施背景下体现在PM2.5的污染不断加重。此外,在UEKC体系中,当以城镇化率指标为主解释变量的时候,人均GDP指标在四个模型中均未通过显著性检验,也即意味着,从城市化角度出发,探讨环境质量的演化特征和规律是一种值得实践验证和科学模拟的研究思路。(3)构建了基于ESDA- Spatial Econometrics的空气质量演化的环境库兹涅茨曲线新的分析框架。ESDA的全局空间相关性分析显示空气污染存在显著的空间正相关性,适合空间计量回归检验;局域空间相关性分析显示空气环境指标的高污染聚集区在不同年份有一定的转移趋势,并主要分布在华北的京津冀以及山东、河南等邻接区域,并且低低集聚的空气质量较优城市范围和数量有一定的扩大。建立空间环境库兹涅茨曲线回归模型(Spatial Econometrics Model),发现空气质量浓度水平与城市化率、人均GDP、建成区面积及产业结构变动息息相关。从空间自回归系数来看,不管是在SGEKC还是SUEKC体系中,均有p IAQIp PM10p NO2p SO2,(后三者较为接近,约为0.25左右),且均通过了1%水平的显著性检验,表明城市空气环境质量的IAQI综合值,受相邻城市的空气污染物扩散影响高于单一的一种污染物的空间效应值,是一个综合影响的结果。与普遍面板检验结果相似的是,在现阶段我国城市的人均收入、城市化发展和城市空气质量(SO2, NO2, PM10, IAQI)之间存在倒“N”型或“U形”曲线关系,并处于环境恶化的上升阶段,没有出现经典的倒“U”型曲线规律。但是在考虑空间计量面板考虑城市间相互作用因素后,模型中由好变坏的恶化拐点提前、由坏转好的改善拐点滞后,说明城市间大气污染物的扩散加速了空气质量的恶化,相应的又一定程度上延缓了空气质量的改善。也进一步表明单一城市的空气质量改善难度极大,并有可能受外在城市干扰影响最终空气质量结果。治理空气污染,区域间联防联控势在必行。(4)基于面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)阐述了城市化发展与空气环境质量的双向作用响应关系。运用2004-2013年274个城市的面板数据,将四种空气环境指标与人口城镇化率进行脉冲响应估计,并分析东、中、西部地区以及沿海和内陆的空气环境质量与城市化发展的双向动态耦合特征。结果表明,区域城市化发展与空气环境质量之间存在着双向互动关系,不仅城市化发展是空气质量变化的重要原因,空气质量的恶化对城市化发展的反向作用也非常显著。通过脉冲响应分析可以看出,我国东、中、西部地区城市化发展与空气环境之间的相互作用关系存在显著的区域差异性。东西部地区城市化发展与空气环境之间的矛盾最为突出,中部相对较弱。这也体现了三大区域中,城市化发展与空气环境之间双向耦合关系的不同发展阶段。东、西部地区仍处在城市化发展导致空气环境污染加剧,空气环境恶化抑制城市化发展的相互抑制阶段,处在较低层次。不同污染物在不同地区的冲击响应和预测方差分解结果是不一致的。总的来看,城市化对空气环境指标的冲击影响是PM10NO2SO2,除了西部地区城市随着人口城镇化率的提升对SO2有一定抑制作用外,其他地区的城市都在不同程度上对空气质量有恶化作用；而在反馈作用上,除了东部城市的SO2以外,其他地区的城市空气环境指标累计响应值均为负值,表明NO2、PM10和IAQI在不同程度上对城市化水平的提高存在制约效应,并且这种效应随着时间效应在增强。综合来看,城市化的过程中不可片面追求城市的人口规模和经济密度而忽略环境污染对人口、经济集聚的负面影响。未来,应建立城市人口规模与空气污染数据的动态关联监测系统,确定城市化水平和污染阈值,建立人类经济活动的空间分布和污染的联动预警机制；并注重降低空气污染对城市化发展的负面影响,在规划、产业、技术等角度制定相应的宏观调控策略。(5)动态评价了省域尺度的城市化和空气环境系统间的耦合协调作用过程,并比较了不同省区的作用关系和模式差别。遴选出作用于空气环境的20个城市化指标和影响城市化的12个空气环境指标,利用结构熵权法和均方差决策法确定指标权重,构建城市化与空气环境的综合水平评价体系和耦合协调度评价模型(CCDM)。结果发现：①省域城市化综合水平得分呈现一定的空间差异性和规律性。其得分分布与中国人口密度对比线(胡焕庸线)的规律基本一致,并且省域城市化水平呈空间集聚分布态势,空间同质性在增强,各个省份之间的城市化水平差异在逐渐缩小。未来的城镇化发展过程中需注重区域间的协调和空间扩散,以实现区域协调发展、缩小地区差异。②2000-2013年各省区的城市化与空气环境的耦合协调模式经历了从不协调期向转型期发展的过程,并没有出现高级协调阶段,说明当前我国城市化过程中的空气环境问题依然矛盾比较突出。从时序上看,不协调期主要集中在2005年以前,2006年以后则有半数以上省区进入了转型期发展阶段;从类型上来看,2006年后,越来越多省区逐渐进入系统间基本协调——空气环境滞后的转型发展期,并于2012年后摆脱不协调期,这也意味着“十二五”后,城市化的发展与空气环境系统间逐渐保持基本协调的发展态势。因此,未来,推进新型城镇化建设,要控制适度规模的人口城镇化、不断完善城市的功能结构,并注重空气质量改善的区域协同。论文的主要创新点在于：利用空间分析方法和空间计量经济学模型,以城市化为主要解释变量,发展并延伸空气污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线理论。考虑到城镇化等社会经济因素和大气环流、不同季节气候气温等自然因素共同对不同时期城市环境空气质量产生影响,未来的研究不仅需聚焦城市规模、产业结构转型升级与空气环境质量的关系机理探讨,还需要在空间计量模型中完善嵌入有风速、风向等自然要素的空间关系权重矩阵。
[Abstract]:Air pollution is one of the main environmental pollution has been a global problem, academic, social common concern and governments all over the world. Since 1978, China since the reform and opening up and rapid economic development, energy efficiency, pollution emissions, serious worsening of the ecological environment including air pollution, change, and lead to haze and other air pollution incidents become fast the city in the process of the "new normal". At the same time, in the industrial transformation and upgrading in the process of China, with "Beijing Tianjin Hebei collaborative development", "The Belt and Road construction", "the Yangtze River economic belt development" three strategy forward, a new road to industrialization, regional coordinated development, ecological civilization construction puts forward new requirements to improve the air quality of the environment in city. Therefore, the study of relations between the city and the ambient air, is not only a new city under the background of ecological environment and the coupling relationship between An important extension, but also to guide and provide an important basis for future environmental policy and sustainable development of the city. In the face of a rapid economic growth, rapid increase of city but the new normal, deterioration of the environment in China, air pollution and city economic growth, exactly what kind of relationship between city development and rapid development of the city? Will cause the air pollution of the environment worsening, or may eventually bring air environment, how the interaction mechanism of the two? Worthy of further discussion. Based on this, this paper Chinese prefecture level city as the main research object (based on continuity index data were screened in 274, a total of 2004-2013 years of city) 10 years of SO2, NO2, spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trend of PM10 of three kinds of conventional pollutants, and selected population urbanization rate, city population size, built-up area and the The proportion of the two industry and the four level of social and economic development of the city characterized indicators to determine its impact on air quality, and then to the city rate and per capita GDP as explanatory variables, respectively construct general panel regression model and spatial econometric model of city panel EKC test on air environmental impact; finally, using panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) model and coupling coordination model (CCDM) is discussed between the city and the air environment of the two systems response rules and coordination mode, and puts forward some corresponding suggestions for the development of new urbanization in China. The main work and the conclusions are as follows: (1) the system reveals three the main air pollutants (SO2, NO2, PM10) 10 years evolution pattern in 274 cities. The evolution from time series, the overall air quality in 274 city decreased slowly and aggravated Temporal evolution, evolution characteristics between different pollutants are quite different, PM1o is the three air pollution and harmful pollutants are relatively common in larger.Daniel trend test results show that the city air quality index IAQI decreased (relative improvement trend, improve the city mainly concentrated in the coastal areas) gamma s rank correlation the coefficient of -0.648 (0.05 level). From the view of spatial distribution, the air environment quality of city distribution showed a significant spatial heterogeneity, and air pollution in the city spatial pattern did not change significantly in North China (Tianjin) part of the city and Shandong is China's air pollution is relatively serious area, but also the current collaborative air pollution key areas of prevention and treatment. Among them, SO2 improved air quality, some areas polluted areas only scattered in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Shandong, Southwest China Pollution control; NO2 pollution and no significant improvement, the regional pollution pattern has not fundamentally changed, North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta is the main pollution regions of China NO2; the PM10 pollution has aggravated the trend to slow down, reduce the heavy pollution area slightly, and shown by concentrated distribution trend (north of Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Shandong, northwest of Xinjiang, Gansu) showed that over the past ten years, the control of PM10 in China has not achieved significant improvement. (2) a comparative analysis of the evolution of the per capita GDP and city rate as the leading air environmental Kuznets curve law. In the stability test of panel data, using the fixed effect model and random effect model, the 4 reflect the environmental air quality index and per capita GDP reflecting the 6 city (of) the development of index regression. Results showed: whether in G EKC system or UEKC system, our country city (of) the relationship between the development and the environmental air quality did not show the inverted U curve classic, showing different characteristics of different pollutants evolution curve of.10 years, with the development of city economy, declining trend of SO2 concentration in the air of city, and to improve the inflection point and in accordance with the inverted "N" curve (GEKC inflection point and improve the deterioration of the inflection point is 15444 yuan and 74015 yuan, in the UEKC system and improve the inflection point inflection point is the deterioration of the city rate of 25.7% and 59.9%); and for NO2, PM10 concentration and air quality index, a "U" relationship between the 10 with the economic development of the city, and in the air environment is rising stage, the present situation of pollution continues to increase (two in the system of the deterioration of inflection point were 199094075944356 yuan and 8.8%, 45.75%, 61%, and the rate of the city) And not to improve the inflection point. With the "state control of nitrogen oxides emissions in 12th Five-Year since, NO2 has ushered in the improvement inflection point trend, but PM10 pollution will continue to deteriorate worse, and implement in the new air quality standards under the background reflected in the pollution of PM2.5 constantly aggravated. In addition, in the UEKC system when, with the urbanization rate index as explanatory variables, the per capita GDP in the four model did not pass the significance test, which means that, starting from the perspective of city, evolution characteristics and laws of the environmental quality is a kind of value in practice and scientific research ideas to verify simulation (3). The construction of global spatial correlation analysis framework of.ESDA ESDA- Spatial Econometrics of the environmental Kuznets curve of air quality evolution based on a new analysis shows that the air pollution there is significant spatial correlation, suitable for space design Regression analysis showed that the local spatial correlation test; high pollution zone air environmental indicators have a certain trend in different years, and mainly distributed in the north of the Beijing Tianjin and Shandong, Henan and other neighboring regions, and the low concentration of air quality is excellent and the city scope have expanded volume. To establish the space environment of Kuznets curve regression model (Spatial Econometrics Model), found that the level of air quality concentration and city rate, per capita GDP, built-up area and industrial structure changes are closely related. From the spatial autoregressive coefficient, whether on SGEKC or SUEKC system, IAQIp PM10p NO2p had P SO2, (the latter three are relatively close, about 0.25 about), and through the test of significance level of 1%, indicating that the air quality of city environment comprehensive value IAQI, adjacent to the city by air pollutants diffusion effect is higher than that of single The spatial effect of a pollutant, is a comprehensive result. Similar to common panel inspection results is that China's per capita income of the city at the present stage, city development and city air quality (SO2, NO2, PM10, IAQI) there is a "N" or "U" shape curve between the deterioration of the environment and in the rising stage, did not appear to curve the classic inverted "U" type. But considering the spatial econometric panel considering the interaction between the factors of the city, in the model is good deterioration inflection point in advance, lag from worse to better improve the inflection point, illustrate the diffusion of atmospheric pollutants between the city worsened the quality of the air, and to a certain extent on the corresponding delay to improve air quality. It further shows that a single city's air quality improvement is extremely difficult, and may be affected by external interference affects the air quality of city governance results. Air pollution, regional joint prevention and control is imperative. (4) the panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) describes the response of dual role of city development and the environmental air quality. Using the panel data of 274 years 2004-2013 City, four kinds of air environmental indicators and population urbanization rate of the impulse response estimation. And the analysis of East, West and the dynamic feature of two-way coupling development of air environmental quality and city of coastal and inland. The results show that the two-way interaction between regional city development and the air quality of the environment, not only the development of city is an important reason for air quality changes, reverse the deterioration of air quality in the city the development is also very significant. Through the impulse response analysis can be seen in the East China, and the relationship between the western region of the city development and the air environment are significant The regional difference. The contradiction between the eastern region of the city development and the air environment is most prominent, but weak in the middle. It also reflects the three regions in different stages of development of two-way coupling relationship between city development and the air environment. The East, western region is still in the city development lead to air pollution intensifies, air environment deterioration of mutual inhibition phase inhibition of city development, at the lower level. Different pollutants in different regions of the impulse response and variance decomposition results are not consistent. In general, the city air environment refers to the influence of the impact of standard is PM10NO2SO2, in addition to city of the western region with the population to improve the urbanization rate has certain inhibition the role of SO2 and other areas of the city are in varying degrees of air quality deterioration effect; while in the feedback effect, in addition to the eastern city of SO2, the City air environmental indicators he area cumulative response value was negative, indicating that NO2, PM10 and IAQI in different degree of city improvement has restricted effect, and this effect with time effect is enhanced. On the whole, can not be one-sided pursuit of population size and density of the city economy and ignore the environmental pollution on the population process in the city, the negative impact of economic agglomeration. The future should be the dynamic association monitoring system established city population scale and the air pollution data, determine the city level and pollution threshold, linkage establishing early warning mechanism of human economic activities, spatial distribution and pollution; and to reduce air pollution to the negative impact, City Development in the planning, industry, technology point of view to formulate macro-control strategies. (5) the dynamic evaluation of coupling coordination function of city provincial scale and air environment between systems The process, and compares the role relationship and pattern in different provinces. Select the role in the air environment of the 20 city index and the influence of the 12 city air environmental indicators, determine the index weight using entropy method and mean variance decision method, coordination evaluation model and the comprehensive level of construction of city air environment the evaluation system and the coupling (CCDM). Results: the province level city domain scores showed some differences in space and regularity. The score distribution and China population density contrast line (Hu Huanyong line) the law is consistent, and the provincial city level is the distribution of the spatial agglomeration trend, spatial homogeneity in the enhancement of city level differences between all provinces in the region gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the coordination between urbanization and spatial diffusion in the course of future development, to achieve coordinated regional development, reduce regional difference Different. And the coupling coordination model of city air environment of 2000-2013 provinces experienced a process of development to the transition period never coordinated, and no advanced stage of coordination, indicating the air current environmental problems in the process of our city is still more prominent contradictions. In order from the point of view, uncoordinated period mainly concentrated before 2005, after 2006 more than half of the provinces into the transition stage of development; from the type of view, after 2006, more and more provinces gradually into the system of basic coordination development -- air environment lag, and get rid of disharmony in 2012, this also means

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.2;X51
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