基于就业视角的延迟退休政策效应评估研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 22:56

本文关键词： 延迟退休政策就业挤出效应收入效应　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：延迟退休政策从2015年以来,一直是深受民众关注的焦点问题,同时也是政府工作改革的重点之一。一方面,随着老龄化问题的不断加剧,国家的社保基金缺口也在不断扩大,国家财政经受着越来越大的考验,现行的退休政策已经不符合国家经济的发展和经济结构的转型要求。而在另一个方面,在习惯了数十年的既定退休政策之后,人民群众对于延迟退休的政策仍抱有质疑和困惑。在大大小小的民意调查中,人们最关心的问题之一就是延迟退休会不会导致原本就困难的就业变得更加不易。延迟退休对于就业有没有影响,有着什么样的影响,这一问题既关乎到延迟退休政策的实施和调整,也关乎到民生问题的民主决策和社会安定。作为社会关注的一个重要问题,延迟退休对于就业的影响,就是本文研究的方向所在。根据要进行研究的课题和思路,文章主要以下面的结构呈现:在摘要之后的第一章里,主要介绍了这篇文章的写作背景,研究意义以及相关的文献综述。第二章将主要从理论上去分析新退休政策将会对就业产生的影响。同时,我们将充分考虑就业的影响机制,考察退休政策对这些机制的影响,最后综合评估延迟退休政策对于就业的影响。在第三章,将会主要介绍我国退休政策的演进以及发展到现在所面临的问题所在,并阐述实施渐进式退休政策的必要性。第四章则会通过建立模型的方式,从数量分析的角度去验证我们在上一章中所做出的推测。遵循上一章我们的分析,我们将建立一个以就业率为因变量,各个影响机制为自变量的模型方程,通过回归分析考察退休政策的正反作用,并得出综合结论。第五章则结合之前的分析,为我国即将到来的延迟退休时代提出在就业方面的政策建议。本文的创新之处是运用理论和实证模型去考察延迟退休对于就业的影响,并根据结果对于国家层面和个人层面提出相关的建议。
[Abstract]:Since 2015, the delayed retirement policy has been the focus of public attention, but also one of the key points of the government work reform. On the one hand, with the aging of the continuous increase in the problem. The gap of the national social security fund is also expanding, the national finance is withstanding more and more big test, the current retirement policy already does not accord with the national economy development and the economic structure transformation request. But in another aspect. After getting used to decades of established retirement policies, the public remains sceptical and confused about the policy of delaying retirement. In opinion polls, large and small. One of the biggest concerns is whether a delay in retirement will make it harder to get a job that is already difficult. This problem not only relates to the implementation and adjustment of the delayed retirement policy, but also to the democratic decision-making and social stability of livelihood issues. As an important issue of social concern, the impact of late retirement on employment. Is the direction of this study. According to the research topics and ideas, the article is presented as the following structure: in the first chapter after the summary, mainly introduces the writing background of this article. The second chapter will analyze the impact of the new retirement policy on employment. At the same time, we will fully consider the employment impact mechanism. To investigate the impact of retirement policies on these mechanisms, and finally to assess the impact of delayed retirement policies on employment. Chapter three. Will mainly introduce the evolution of China's retirement policy and the problems faced by the development to now, and explain the necessity of implementing progressive retirement policy. Chapter 4th will be through the establishment of a model. From the perspective of quantitative analysis to verify our assumptions made in the previous chapter. In accordance with our analysis in the previous chapter, we will establish a model equation with the employment rate as a dependent variable and the influence mechanisms as independent variables. Through regression analysis, the positive and negative effects of retirement policy are investigated, and a comprehensive conclusion is drawn. Chapter 5th is combined with the previous analysis. The innovation of this paper is the use of theoretical and empirical models to investigate the impact of delayed retirement on employment. And based on the results of the national level and the individual level of relevant recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2

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