人民币汇率制度的选择--基于博弈论角度的损失函数

发布时间：2018-01-23 14:23

本文关键词： 汇率制度福利损失金融市场经济全球化市场监管　出处：基于博弈论角度的损失函数　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的发展和各国间贸易往来的逐渐加深,汇率制度安排对于国内经济发展和国际间贸易收益都将发挥日益重要的作用。文章从博弈论角度出发,建立计量经济模型,分别以微观经济和宏观经济两个视角,建立厂商和政府的损失方程,并基于福利损失函数,以福利最大化为主要目标,构建汇率制度选择模型,进而对我国短期及中长期的汇率制度选择进行判定。文章由此得出研究结论:以当前中国的经济发展状况来看,短期内,为了维护国内金融市场的安全稳定和经济的平稳发展,应维持当前所参考的货币篮子的管理浮动的汇率制度;而随着我国金融市场监管的完善和金融市场的成熟,长期来看,更加灵活的汇率制度引起的政府损失低于相对固定汇率制度下政府的损失,我国汇率制度应该变得更加灵活。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and the deepening of trade between countries, the arrangement of exchange rate regime will play an increasingly important role in both domestic economic development and international trade gains. The econometric model is established to establish the loss equations of the firm and the government from the microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives respectively. Based on the welfare loss function, the main goal is to maximize the welfare. This paper constructs a model of exchange rate regime selection, and then determines the short-term and medium- and long-term exchange rate regime choices. The paper draws a conclusion: according to the current economic development in China, short-term. In order to maintain the security and stability of the domestic financial market and the steady development of the economy, the floating exchange rate system of the currency basket should be maintained. With the improvement of financial market supervision and the maturity of financial market, in the long run, the government losses caused by more flexible exchange rate system are lower than those under the relative fixed exchange rate system. China's exchange rate regime should become more flexible.
【作者单位】：中国政法大学;
【分类号】：F224.32;F832.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言随着中国经济的持续发展和进出口贸易的体量增加,中国已经在国际贸易中占据主导地位(根据图1和图2的数据直观可见)。国际贸易的发展离不开合理的汇率制度安排。2015年11月,IMF宣布将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子,这意味着人民币越来越受到世界其他国家的认可,越来越多的国

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