农民工回流意愿的影响因素与农民工分流机制的构建——基于二分类Logistic模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-25 15:15

本文关键词： 农民工回流意愿分流机制政策导向　出处：《学术研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：农民工自东向西的回流具有显著的结构效应,它既能倒逼推动我国产业结构的升级优化,也有利于区域间的协调发展,但盲目强调劳动力回流容易加剧东部地区的"民工荒",也容易导致东部地区陷入"产业空心化"的困境。因此,构建农民工区域就业、创业分流机制对实现农民工回流的结构效应至关重要。针对农民工回流影响因素的二分类Logistic回归结果表明:就业方面,东部地区应把20岁以下和40岁以上的农民工作为农民工就业制度的需求主体,通过增强其身份认同感、改善其居住环境、增强其就业培训、加大其社保力度、提高其技能水平、强化其工作权益等举措,巩固其留守意愿;中西部地区应着重针对20—40岁农民工的行为特征,通过强化其与家乡的联系、建立合理的工资增长机制、提高其比较收益等措施,吸引其回流。创业方面,东部地区的政策着力点应放在为农民工提供创业咨询和指导上,中西部地区则需提供包括咨询、指导、培训、资金等全方位的创业支持,同时要注意政策的连续性和继起性,做好政策与政策之间的衔接,并把农民工返乡创业与本地城镇发展相结合,推动产城互融。
[Abstract]:The return of migrant workers from east to west has a significant structural effect, which can not only push forward the upgrading and optimization of China's industrial structure, but also conducive to the coordinated development of regions. However, the blind emphasis on the return of labor force is easy to aggravate the "shortage of migrant workers" in the eastern region, and also lead to the dilemma of "industrial hollowing out" in the eastern region. Therefore, the construction of regional employment of migrant workers. The mechanism of entrepreneurial diversion is very important to realize the structural effect of migrant workers' return. The results of two-classification Logistic regression show that: employment. The eastern region should regard migrant workers under the age of 20 and over 40 as the main demand for the employment system of migrant workers, through enhancing their identity, improve their living environment, enhance their employment training. Strengthen its social security, improve its skill level, strengthen its work rights and interests and other measures to consolidate its willingness to stay; The central and western regions should focus on the behavior characteristics of migrant workers aged 20-40, through strengthening their ties with their hometown, establish a reasonable wage growth mechanism, and improve their comparative benefits and other measures. In terms of attracting their return to start a business, the policy focus of the eastern region should be on providing entrepreneurial advice and guidance for migrant workers, while the central and western regions should provide advice, guidance and training. At the same time, we should pay attention to the continuity and continuation of policies, do a good job of linking up policies and policies, and combine migrant workers returning home to start their own businesses with the development of local cities and towns to promote the integration of industrial and urban areas.
【作者单位】：河南师范大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目“我国进城农村劳动力生存状态的代际差异及其效率研究”(12YJC790126);教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目“不完全劳资契约的剩余分配问题研究”(12YJC790164)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F249.2;F323.6
【正文快照】： 一、问题的提出改革开放以来,我国已经发生过几次大规模的农民工回流现象。20世纪80年代末和90年代初期由于经济增速放缓和城市治理等问题,外出农民工大量返乡。20世纪90年代末期开展的国企改革导致城市失业人口剧增。为此,政府设立户口限制、企业用工限制等多项二元化制度障

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