住宅地价变化对城市规模扩张的影响——基于全国48个大中城市的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 04:05

本文关键词： 住宅地价城市规模扩张城市化大中城市　出处：《现代城市研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着当前城市化水平的不断提高,人口"乡~城"转移的规模变得越来越大,城市居民对住宅和公共基础设施也提出了更多新的要求,从而在一定程度上增加了对建设用地的需求。在高需求的拉动下,不仅住宅地价会发生相应的变化,而且住宅地价的变化也会对城市规模的扩张产生一定程度的引致效应。本文基于城市规模扩张的相关理论与研究成果,构建了一个反映住宅地价变化与城市规模扩张间关系的计量经济模型,并利用中国大陆48个典型大中城市2000-2012年的面板数据进行实证检验。结果显示,在一定范围内住宅地价的上涨会显著推动城市规模的扩张,但随着住宅地价的持续上升,其对城市规模扩张的作用将呈现"倒U型"的变化规律。此外,在处于不同城市化发展水平的城市中,城市化水平较高的城市,住宅地价上涨对城市规模扩张的影响弹性越大:且随着城市化水平的提高,住宅地价持续上涨对城市规模扩张的负向抑制作用也会越明显。最后论文从完善城市土地市场尤其是住宅地价管控的角度,提出了引导城市规模有序扩张的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization, the scale of population transfer from township to city has become larger and larger, and urban residents have put forward more and more new requirements for housing and public infrastructure. Thus to a certain extent increased the demand for construction land. In the high demand pull not only the residential land price will change accordingly. And the change of residential land price will also have a certain degree of effect on the expansion of urban scale. This paper is based on the theory and research results of urban scale expansion. This paper constructs an econometric model which reflects the relationship between the change of residential land price and the expansion of urban scale. Using panel data of 48 typical large and medium-sized cities in mainland China from 2000 to 2012, the results show that the increase of residential land price in a certain range will significantly promote the expansion of urban scale. However, with the continuous rise of residential land price, the effect of residential land price on the urban scale expansion will show the "inverted U" pattern of change. In addition, in the cities with different levels of urbanization, the cities with higher urbanization level. The higher the housing price, the greater the elasticity of urban scale expansion: and with the increase of urbanization level. The negative restraining effect of the continuous increase of residential land price on the urban scale expansion will be more obvious. Finally, the paper from the perspective of perfecting the urban land market, especially housing land price control. The paper puts forward some policy suggestions to guide the orderly expansion of urban scale.
【作者单位】：南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41101160,41501185,41671171) 国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目课题(编号:2013BAJ13B02) 中国土地勘测规划院土地资源调查评价项目(编号:DCPJ131205)
【分类号】：F299.2
【正文快照】： 0引言等,2011;盛业旭,等,2014;张耀宇,等,式"厂房对城市建设用地规模的扩张(王改革开放以来,中国的快速工业化 2016;Chen et al.,2016)。除了上述影玉波,2015)。相比之下,住宅地价与城和城市化导致人□不断向城市聚集,用地响因素外,近年来,也有学者^u始探讨土市规模扩张之间

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