江苏省城市化与经济增长的脱钩研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 20:00

本文关键词： 人口城市化土地城市化经济增长脱钩江苏省　出处：《资源科学》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：现阶段城市化与经济的快速发展特征显著,研究两者之间的关系对于协调可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以江苏省为例,应用脱钩理论剖析1997-2015年城市化(人口城市化、土地城市化)与经济(GDP、非农GDP、第三产业GDP)发展间的动态变化关系,揭示其脱钩状态的时空差异。研究结果表明:(1)全省人口城市化水平较高,自南向北差异明显;土地城市化水平较稳提升,苏南地区发展快于苏中苏北地区;(2)2006年前人口城市化、2009年前土地城市化与GDP年度脱钩系数波动较大,呈强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩与扩张连接四种类型,人口城市化与GDP低水平协调发展区域主要位于苏南苏中地区,低水平城市化冒进区域主要位于苏北地区,土地城市化与GDP年度脱钩状态分布全省较为均衡;之后全省高达96.58%的数据稳定在弱脱钩区域,经济增长对城市化依赖程度正不断减弱;(3)1997-2015年、1997-2009年与2009-2015年时间段尺度下人口城市化、土地城市化与GDP脱钩状态较一致,总体波动不如年度数据剧烈,苏南地区全部为弱脱钩状态,苏中苏北大部分为弱脱钩状态,城市化与GDP脱钩效应较为均衡与理想;(4)城市化与GDP、非农GDP、第三产业GDP脱钩状态变化规律较为一致,城市化与第三产业GDP脱钩效应略弱于非农GDP。
[Abstract]:At present, the characteristics of urbanization and rapid economic development are remarkable. It is important to study the relationship between the two to coordinate sustainable development. This paper takes Jiangsu Province as an example. The dynamic relationship between urbanization (population urbanization, land urbanization) and the development of economic GDP, non-agricultural GDP and tertiary industry from 1997 to 2015 was analyzed by using decoupling theory. The results show that the urbanization level of population in the province is relatively high, and the difference from south to north is obvious. The level of urbanization of land is relatively stable and the development of southern Jiangsu is faster than that of northern Jiangsu; (2) population urbanization before 2006, land urbanization and GDP annual decoupling coefficient fluctuated greatly before 2009, there were four types of strong decoupling, weak decoupling, negative expansion decoupling and expansion connection. The coordinated development of population urbanization and GDP is mainly located in the south of Jiangsu province, and the low level of urbanization is mainly located in the northern part of Jiangsu province. The distribution of land urbanization and annual decoupling of GDP in the whole province is more balanced; After that, the data of up to 96.58% of the province are stable in the weak decoupling area, and the dependence of economic growth on urbanization is weakening; During 1997-2015 and 2009-2015, population urbanization, land urbanization and GDP decoupling were consistent. The overall fluctuation is not as sharp as the annual data. All the areas in southern Jiangsu are weak decoupling, and most of northern Jiangsu is weak decoupling. The decoupling effect between urbanization and GDP is more balanced and ideal. (4) the change law of GDP decoupling between urbanization and GDP, non-agricultural GDPand tertiary industry is consistent, and the decoupling effect of urbanization and tertiary industry GDP is weaker than that of non-agricultural GDP.
【作者单位】：南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41230751) 江苏省“十三五”土地整治规划(2016-2020) 江苏省博士后科研资助计划(1601067B)
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

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