生命周期视角下房地产企业的信用风险研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 19:23

本文关键词： 信用风险房地产企业生命周期宏观经济共赢　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产是我国重要的经济产业之一,它已由高利润的黄金时代进入白银时代。目前经济下行压力大,在宏观经济政策的引导下,房地产业逐渐回暖。但由于长期追逐短期利益、缺乏战略规划,房地产业积累的库存量仍很大,造成了成长的压力,给企业发展带来了较大的不确定性和潜在风险;另外,房地产企业具有资金需求量大、周转时间长、融资渠道单一等特点,存在着很高的风险。所以房地产企业的信用风险问题比较严峻。房地产关联企业众多,一旦爆发信用危机不仅会对债权人产生严重影响,而且可能会危及整个市场经济。因此,防范和管理房地产信用风险意义重大。鉴于企业发展动态性对房地产信用风险的重要影响,本文从生命周期的角度对房地产信用风险进行研究和分析。首先,基于企业生命周期理论,将房地产企业划分为初创期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期,从定性的角度分析房地产企业各生命周期的信用风险特征。其次,选取了财务状况、宏观经济变量、企业基本情况等25个指标,并利用相对成长指数对房地产上市公司的生命周期进行划分。然后应用stata14.0中的KruskalWallis检验和因子分子法对指标进行筛选并提取主成分因子,最终确定了11个自变量。再次,利用logistic回归分析法建立房地产信用风险的预测模型,对模型进行拟合优度检验和正确性检验,根据实证研究的结果从总体和生命周期两个层面对信用风险进行深入分析。研究表明,房地产企业在各生命周期面临的信用风险不同,其信用风险的主要影响因素也不同,其中相对成长指数、偿债能力以及管理层变更等对信用风险存在正向影响。最后,根据房地产企业各生命周期的信用风险特征,提出企业、商业银行和政府加强房地产信用风险管理的相关建议,以期实现共赢,促进国民经济的稳定发展。
[Abstract]:Real estate is one of the important economic industries in our country. It has entered the silver era from the golden age of high profits. At present, the downward pressure of the economy is great. Under the guidance of macroeconomic policy, the real estate industry is gradually warming up. However, due to the long-term pursuit of short-term interests, In the absence of strategic planning, the stock accumulated by the real estate industry is still very large, resulting in pressure for growth, which brings greater uncertainty and potential risks to the development of the enterprise. In addition, the real estate enterprises have a large demand for funds and a long turnaround time. Because of the single financing channel, there is a high risk. Therefore, the credit risk problem of real estate enterprises is quite serious. There are many associated real estate enterprises, once the credit crisis breaks out, it will not only have a serious impact on creditors, Therefore, it is of great significance to prevent and manage the real estate credit risk. This paper studies and analyzes the real estate credit risk from the point of view of life cycle. Firstly, based on the theory of enterprise life cycle, the real estate enterprise is divided into initial period, growth period, mature period and decline period. This paper analyzes the credit risk characteristics of real estate enterprises in each life cycle from a qualitative perspective. Secondly, 25 indicators such as financial status, macroeconomic variables, and basic enterprise conditions are selected. Using the relative growth index to divide the life cycle of the real estate listed companies, then using the KruskalWallis test and factor molecular method in stata14.0 to screen the index and extract the principal component factors, and finally determine 11 independent variables. The prediction model of real estate credit risk is established by logistic regression analysis, and the goodness of fit and correctness of the model are tested. According to the results of the empirical study, the credit risk is analyzed from the overall and the life cycle levels. The study shows that the real estate enterprises face different credit risk in each life cycle, and the main influencing factors of the credit risk are also different. Among them, relative growth index, solvency and management change have positive effects on credit risk. Finally, according to the characteristics of credit risk of real estate enterprises, the paper puts forward that enterprises, Commercial banks and the government should strengthen the management of real estate credit risk in order to realize win-win situation and promote the steady development of national economy.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.4

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