基于博弈均衡的高铁民航合理定价研究

发布时间：2018-02-14 17:11

本文关键词： 竞争博弈层次分析法支付函数纳什均衡　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,高速铁路在中国发展迅速。高速铁路的建设既有利于缓解铁路运输供不应求的状况,也促进了沿线城市经济的快速发展。但同时,由于高速铁路与民航提供的运输服务具有很大的一致性,所以导致双方在客运市场中存在激烈的竞争关系。运输市场中高铁与民航的竞争本质就是双方均以实现效益最大化为目标,增大自身效益最主要的一个方面就是在制定合理的价格范围内吸引更多的客流,而吸引客流就是要通过自己的营销策略改变旅客的出行选择,使旅客在选择交通方式时更加倾向于自己的一方。如何吸引旅客,首先必须确定有哪些因素会影响旅客的选择,而这些因素直接关系旅客的选择偏好。所以在票价决策过程中必须要考虑影响旅客出行的因素,以及旅客的选择偏好。本文选择快速性、经济性、舒适性、便捷性、安全性五个影响因素,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各个指标的权重系数,进而确立旅客选择各个交通方式的支付函数。运用重力模型对两地间的客流进行预测,在此基础上建立高速铁路和民航的博弈竞争纳什均衡模型,并选择运用粒子群优化算法求解模型,双方均以效益最大化为目标选择票价策略。最后,本文以武汉-广州运输通道间的高铁与民航作为分析对象,结果显示现阶段高铁和民航的票价均高于博弈均衡后的票价,说明两地间高铁和民航的票价还不够合理,旅客对于票价较为敏感。本文在此基础上分别为高铁和民航提出了相应的优化建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, high-speed railway has developed rapidly in China. The construction of high-speed railway not only helps alleviate the shortage of railway transport supply, but also promotes the rapid development of urban economy along the line. Because of the great consistency between the transport services provided by high-speed railways and civil aviation, Therefore, there is a fierce competitive relationship between the two sides in the passenger transport market. The essence of the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation in the transport market is that both sides aim at maximizing benefits. One of the most important aspects of increasing one's own benefits is to attract more passengers within a reasonable price range, and to attract passengers is to change their travel choices through their own marketing strategies. Make passengers more inclined to their own side when choosing the mode of transportation. In order to attract passengers, first of all, we must determine what factors will affect the choice of passengers. These factors are directly related to the choice preference of passengers. Therefore, in the process of fare decision, we must consider the factors that affect the travel of passengers, as well as the choice preferences of passengers. The weight coefficient of each index is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the payment function of passengers choosing each mode of transportation is established. The gravity model is used to predict the passenger flow between the two places. On this basis, the game competition Nash equilibrium model of high-speed railway and civil aviation is established, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the model. This paper takes the high-speed rail and civil aviation between Wuhan and Guangzhou as the analysis object. The results show that the ticket price of high-speed rail and civil aviation is higher than that of game equilibrium at the present stage, which shows that the ticket price of high-speed rail and civil aviation between the two places is not reasonable enough. Passengers are more sensitive to fares. On this basis, this paper puts forward corresponding optimization suggestions for high-speed rail and civil aviation respectively.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224.32;F512.5

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