中国住宅销售价格对居民消费的影响

发布时间：2018-02-21 16:35

本文关键词： 住宅销售价格消费者异质性欧拉等式　出处：《经济学(季刊)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文通过构建一个两类消费者的动态局部均衡模型,推导出总消费的欧拉方程,从而分析了中国住宅销售价格与居民消费之间的均衡关系。基于1998—2011年31个省(直辖市)的年度面板数据,本文采用Pesaran(2006)提出的CCE方法对参数进行估计。实证研究的结果表明,房价的持续上涨对居民消费存在显著的抑制作用。在其他条件不变的情况下,非住宅类消费对住宅价格变化的弹性为-0.021。该数值虽小,但考虑到房价增长率的标准差(32.27)要大于消费增长率的标准差(5.89),房价对消费有较大的负面影响。按全国住宅类商品房销售价格年均增长率8.60%计算,每年该房价增长率带来的消费增长率减少0.181%,1999—2012年累计减少的消费增长率为2.32%。本文的相关稳健性检验证实通货膨胀率的计算方式及利率指标的不同选取均不改变房价上涨对消费的抑制性影响。最后,本文结合结构模型对中国房地产市场负财富效应的原因进行了探讨。
[Abstract]:In this paper, an Euler equation of total consumption is derived by constructing a dynamic local equilibrium model for two types of consumers. Based on the annual panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 1998 to 2011, this paper uses the CCE method proposed by Pesaranji 2006 to estimate the parameters. The sustained rise in house prices has a significant inhibitory effect on household consumption. Under other conditions, the elasticity of non-residential consumption to residential price changes is -0.021. However, considering that the standard deviation of the rate of house price growth is 32.27), it is greater than the standard deviation of the growth rate of consumption by 5.89%, and the housing price has a great negative impact on consumption. The average annual growth rate of the sales price of the national residential commodity housing is calculated as 8.60%. The annual decrease of consumption growth rate caused by this rate of house price growth is 0.181% and the cumulative decrease of consumption growth rate in 1999-2012 is 2.32%. The relevant robustness test in this paper proves that the calculation method of inflation rate and the different choice of interest rate index do not change the house price. The inhibitory effect of rising consumption. Finally, This paper discusses the causes of negative wealth effect in China's real estate market based on structural model.
【作者单位】：厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;
【基金】：北京大学国家发展研究院中国宏观经济研究中心厦门大学王亚南经济研究院所提供的研究支持国家自然科学基金(71203189,71301135)的经费支持
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23

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