基于生态足迹理论的新疆可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 13:15

本文选题：生态足迹　切入点：生态承载力　出处：《节水灌溉》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于生态足迹和生态承载力理论,对2000-2014年新疆人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、万元GDP生态足迹、生态协调系数的动态变化进行分析,运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测新疆2020年、2025年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、万元GDP生态足迹。结果显示:2000-2014年新疆人均生态足迹呈逐年上升趋势,从2000年的1.699 3hm~2上升到2014年的4.100 5 hm~2,年均增幅为5.86%。新疆人均生态承载力基本保持在1.400 3~1.585 2 hm~2,且有逐年缓慢减小的趋势。人均生态足迹快速增长,人均生态承载力缓慢减小,造成生态赤字逐年扩大,人均赤字额由2000年的0.232 9 hm~2扩大到2014年的2.700 2 hm~2,赤字率由2000年的15.88%上升到2014年的192.82%。资源利用效益水平不断提高,生态协调度不断下降。预测结果表明:2020年新疆人均生态足迹将上升到6.496 4 hm~2,2025年将达到9.586 4 hm~2。2020年人均可利用生态承载力预计下降到1.294 7 hm~2,2025年为1.212 5 hm~2。万元GDP生态足迹2020年下降到0.649 9 hm~2,2025年预计为0.478 0 hm~2。基于此,提出降低化石能源消费比例,控制人口增长,提高土地产出效率是缓解新疆生态赤字的有效途径。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity, this paper analyzes the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita, ecological carrying capacity per capita, ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP and ecological coordination coefficient in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014. The prediction model was used to predict the ecological footprint per capita, ecological carrying capacity per capita and GDP ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan in Xinjiang in 2020 and 2025. The results showed that the ecological footprint of Xinjiang per capita increased year by year from 2000 to 2014. From 1.6993hmm2 in 2000 to 4.1005hmm2 on 2014, the average annual increase was 5.86.The ecological carrying capacity per capita in Xinjiang was maintained at 1.4003hm-2 and 1.5852 hmm2, with a trend of decreasing year by year. The per capita ecological footprint increased rapidly and the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased slowly. The ecological deficit was enlarged year by year, the per capita deficit increased from 0.232 9 hm~2 in 2000 to 2.700 2 hmm2 in 2014, and the deficit rate increased from 15.88% in 2000 to 192.82 in 2000. The forecast results show that the ecological footprint per capita in Xinjiang will rise to 6.4964 hmm-2 in 2020, 9.5864 hmm-2 in 2025 and 1.2947 hmm2 in 2025, and RMB 1.2125 hmm-2 in 2025. The trace dropped to 0.649 9 hmm2 on 2020 and 0.478 0 hmm-2 on 2025. It is suggested that reducing the proportion of fossil energy consumption, controlling population growth and improving the efficiency of land output are effective ways to alleviate Xinjiang's ecological deficit.
【作者单位】：石河子大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“丝绸之路经济带我国西北段城市群综合承载力研究”课题(15XJL020)
【分类号】：F124.5;X22

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