成都武侯新城RY房地产项目投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 20:20

本文选题：房地产　切入点：投资决策　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业已经告别了高速增长的黄金时代,进入了白银时代。近年来,房地产行业整体产能过剩的现象十分突出,部分地区或产品的供给大于需求,房地产开发商的利润也被不断压缩。随着市场的规范程度加强,金融政策更加严格,使得房地产公司前期投入的运营资金也越来越多,如果不能快速销售及回笼资金,投资者的资金链随时存在断裂的风险。加之政府对地价、房价的不断调控,开发商拿地时要考虑和预判的因素也越来越多。以上原因导致开发商对房地产投资更加理性和谨慎。因此,只有在进行房地产投资前,对项目做一个全面、清晰的了解,并对项目做一套完整科学的可行性研究,才能做出正确的投资决策,并在今后的开发运营中取得收益,否则,盲目的投资必然会带来不可估量的风险。本篇论文首先对房地产投资决策的概念及特征进行了概述、然后着重对房地产投资过程中的决策内容、使用方法和具体程序进行了详细阐释。最后选取了中粮地产成都公司拟投资开发的成都武侯新城RY房地产项目进行投资决策分析。分析的方法为,首先介绍了项目基本情况,包括开发商介绍、项目区位,规划条件等;其次对项目的投资环境,包括宏观经济环境、政策环境、市场环境等进行分析,并选取了项目周边竞品进行详细的研究,基于市场调查法推导出本项目各产品的价格;再次,结合本项目的规划指标,概算出项目的投资成本,同时对产品的销售进度进行排布,测算出该项目的各项经济指标,包括销售净利率,内部收益率,净现值,投资回收期等,通过这些指标对项目的经济效益做出评判;再次采用敏感性分析对在不同地价及销售价格下的财务指标做出计算,对项目的不确定性进行了估计。最后,通过以上分析,得出项目投资决策的结果和定论。本文将MBA所学的各种知识,如投资学、财务管理学、项目管理学等,与日常工作中的经验相结合,对房地产项目投资决策进行了研究,旨在为房地产投资者提供一套完整而全面的决策体系和工具,对房地产投资决策有重要的现实意义。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has left the golden age of rapid growth and entered the silver era. In recent years, the phenomenon of overcapacity in the real estate industry as a whole has become very prominent, with the supply of some areas or products exceeding demand. The profits of real estate developers have also been continuously compressed. As the market has become more standardized and the financial policy has become more stringent, more and more operating capital has been invested by real estate companies in the early stages. If the funds cannot be sold and withdrawn quickly, There is a risk that the investor's capital chain will break at any time. In addition to the government's constant regulation of land prices and house prices, There are more and more factors to be considered and forecasted when developers take the land. The above causes developers to invest in real estate more rationally and cautiously. Therefore, only before making real estate investment, do a comprehensive and clear understanding of the project. And make a complete set of scientific feasibility study to make the right investment decision, and in the future development and operation of the income, otherwise, Blind investment will inevitably bring incalculable risk. This paper first summarizes the concept and characteristics of real estate investment decision, and then focuses on the content of real estate investment decision-making. Finally, the author chooses the real estate project of Chengdu Wuhou New City, Chengdu, which is to be invested and developed by Cofco Real Estate Company, to make investment decision analysis. The analysis method is as follows: firstly, the basic situation of the project is introduced. Including developer introduction, project location, planning conditions, etc. Secondly, the investment environment of the project, including the macroeconomic environment, policy environment, market environment and so on, is analyzed, and the competitive products around the project are selected for detailed study. Based on the method of market investigation, the price of each product of the project is deduced. Thirdly, combining the planning index of the project, the investment cost of the project is estimated, and at the same time, the schedule of sales of the product is arranged, and the various economic indicators of the project are calculated. Including the net interest rate of sales, internal rate of return, net present value, investment payback period, etc. Through these indicators, the economic benefits of the project are evaluated. Again, sensitivity analysis is used to calculate the financial indicators under different land prices and sales prices. The uncertainty of the project is estimated. Finally, through the above analysis, the results and conclusions of the project investment decision are obtained. In this paper, MBA will learn a variety of knowledge, such as investment, financial management, project management, etc. Combining with the experience of daily work, this paper studies the investment decision of real estate project, aiming at providing a set of complete and comprehensive decision-making system and tool for the real estate investors, which has important practical significance for the real estate investment decision.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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