工业化、城镇化与经济增长:孰为因孰为果

发布时间：2018-03-13 16:19

本文选题：工业化　切入点：城镇化　出处：《财贸经济》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从理论与实证两个方面分析工业化、城镇化与经济增长的逻辑关系。首先通过理论分析指出了三者的内在区别,并基于1960年以来OECD国家以及发展中国家的数据和面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型分析了城镇化、工业化与经济增长的逻辑关系。实证研究的结论显示,三者在不同类型国家呈现出不同的特征。对于OECD国家而言,由于城镇化进入相对饱和阶段,经济增长、工业化都不对其构成显著影响;其城镇化更多显示出结构性变化特征。相比之下,工业化、城镇化和经济增长的关系在发展中国家更为紧密,三者关系呈现出工业化带动经济增长,经济增长加速城镇化的特征,且城镇化对于工业化也存在反作用。加入政府支出和国际贸易变量后,上述结论仍然成立,尤其对于发展中国家而言,工业化、城镇化与经济增长都伴随着政府支出与贸易规模的增长,这与OECD国家形成鲜明对比。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the logical relationship between industrialization, urbanization and economic growth from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Based on the data and panel vector autoregressive model of OECD countries and developing countries since 1960, this paper analyzes the logical relationship between urbanization, industrialization and economic growth. For the OECD countries, the urbanization has entered the stage of relative saturation, and the economic growth, industrialization has no significant effect on it. In contrast, industrialization, urbanization and economic growth are more closely related in developing countries. Economic growth accelerates urbanization, and urbanization has a counterproductive effect on industrialization. With the addition of government spending and international trade variables, the above conclusions still hold true, especially for developing countries. Urbanization and economic growth are accompanied by government spending and the scale of trade, which is in sharp contrast to OECD countries.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“内生汇率传递下国际冲击对中国通货膨胀的动态影响”(71303256) 国家社科基金重大项目招标课题“外部冲击和结构性转换下的中高速增长和中高端发展研究”(15ZDC010)
【分类号】：F113;F299.1;F414

【相似文献】