PPP模式下综合管廊项目风险分担模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 23:47

本文选题：PPP　切入点：综合管廊项目　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来我国城市化进程的脚步不断加快,随之而来的各种问题也不断涌现,其中以“拉链马路”为代表的城市基础设施水平过低现象尤为严峻。为解决“拉链马路”现象,我国政府大力推广修建综合管廊。考虑到政府的资金压力以及人们对改善“拉链马路”的迫切需求,我国政府将PPP模式引入到综合管廊的建设中。然而,对于PPP项目而言,风险的合理分担是项目成功的关键,目前迫切需要一种行之有效的方法来解决综合管廊PPP项目的风险分担问题。论文考虑到PPP模式下综合管廊项目在我国的建设尚属初期,相关研究文献针对性不强,故从综合管廊和风险分担两个方面进行国内外研究现状总结。论文采用HHM法对PPP模式下综合管廊项目进行全寿命周期内的风险识别,识别出外因风险和内因风险共67项。论文通过对综合管廊PPP项目合同结构的分析,得出风险分担的主体为:政府和项目公司。论文建立成因分析与基于风险分担原则修正的shapley值相结合的风险分担模型,采用成因分析进行风险的初次分担,得出需要各自单独承担与共同承担的风险;采用修正的shapley值法对共担风险进行二次分担,得出具体分担比例;采用风险分担的4项基本原则为基础建立风险修正的一级指标,再将一级指标细化为10个更具可操作性的二级指标,采用AHP法对这10个二级指标确定权重,针对具体项目得出政府方和项目公司10个修正指标的得分矩阵D,代入公式,得出各指标对参与部门i的综合修正程度Ri,代入shapley值模型即可完成修正。最后论文采用H市综合管廊PPP项目进行了实例验证,得出政治、法律等风险由政府承担;建设、融资等风险由项目公司承担;不可抗力风险、通货膨胀风险及利率风险由双方共担,并得出某不可抗力风险的具体分担比例为28.72%,71.28%。论文采用风险分担原则为基础对shapley值进行修正,符合ppp项目风险分担特性,可以最大程度保证分担结果的公平性和合理性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the pace of urbanization in China has been speeding up, and various problems have been emerging, especially the phenomenon that the level of urban infrastructure is too low, which is represented by "zipper road", in order to solve the problem of "zipper road". In view of the financial pressure of the government and the urgent need to improve the "zipper road", our government has introduced the PPP model into the construction of the integrated pipe corridor. However, for the PPP project, The reasonable risk sharing is the key to the success of the project. At present, an effective method is urgently needed to solve the problem of risk sharing in the integrated pipe gallery PPP project. This paper takes into account that the construction of the integrated pipe gallery project under the PPP mode is still in its infancy in our country. The related research literature is not specific, so the domestic and foreign research status of integrated pipe corridor and risk sharing are summarized. The paper adopts HHM method to identify the risk of the integrated pipe corridor project in the whole life cycle of PPP model. In this paper, 67 items of external and internal risk are identified. The contract structure of PPP project is analyzed. The main body of risk sharing is: government and project company. This paper establishes the risk sharing model which combines the cause analysis and shapley value based on the principle of risk sharing, and adopts the cause analysis to share the risk for the first time. It is concluded that the risk needs to be shared separately and jointly; the modified shapley value method is used to share the risk twice and the specific share ratio is obtained; the four basic principles of risk sharing are used as the basis to establish the primary index of risk revision. Then the first level index is refined into 10 more operable secondary indexes, the weight of the 10 secondary indexes is determined by AHP method, and the score matrix D of the 10 revised indexes of the government and the project company is obtained according to the specific project, and the formula is substituted in the formula. The comprehensive correction degree of each index to the participating department I is obtained, and the shapley value model can be used to complete the revision. Finally, the paper uses the PPP project of H city integrated pipe gallery to carry out an example verification, and draws the conclusion that the government should bear the risks such as politics, law and so on; the construction, construction, and so on. The risk such as financing is borne by the project company, the force majeure risk, inflation risk and interest rate risk are shared by both parties, and the specific share ratio of force majeure risk is 28.72and 71.28.The paper adopts the principle of risk sharing to revise the shapley value. According to the ppp project risk sharing characteristics, the fairness and rationality of the sharing results can be guaranteed to the greatest extent.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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