西安市城市化过程与用水耦合关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 01:31

本文选题：城市化　切入点：城市用水　出处：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市化是伴随着经济发展而出现的一种社会经济结构和人口结构的综合性改变,一般表现为在一定区域范围内人口、资源、信息、生产资料以及其他经济要素的高度集聚。截止到2016年中国城市化率已经达到了 57.35%,城市规模与数量的快速发展给城市供水带来了巨大压力。西安市处于半干旱半湿润地区,水资源短缺,人均水资源量仅为世界人均水资源量的1/11。水资源短缺明显制约了西安市城市化的正常发展。本论文探讨了西安市城市化进程与用水量之间的关系,分析城市化进程与用水的关系特征,寻找它们之间的相互作用以及规律并给出定量化的研究结果。主要研究内容及结论如下:(1)分析了用水趋势与用水特征。应用Mann-Kendall趋势分析方法对西安市居民生活用水量、农业用水量、工业用水量和公共与生态环境用水量等进行了趋势分析,并以人口城市化为标准,将城市化分为三个阶段,对各个阶段内的城市用水特征进行了分析。结果表明,农业用水量呈明显减少趋势;工业用水量经历了先增后减的一个过程;居民生活用水量呈明显增加趋势;生态环境用水量增加趋势明显。(2)构建了城市化与用水耦合协调度模型。建立评价指标体系,对西安市城市化系统与用水系统的耦合协调水平进行了测定。计算结果表明,城市化系统与用水系统的耦合协调度逐年增加。从耦合协调等级来看,西安市城市化系统与用水系统分别经过了轻度失调,勉强协调,初级协调,中级协调,良好协调,最终达到优质协调,呈现出良性且可持续的发展趋势。(3)研究了水资源约束下的城市适宜规模。建立了基于水资源约束的城市发展多目标决策模型,采用灰色预测和二次指数平滑法等系统预测方法预测了模型中的相关指标值,采用联合国提出的两期推算法推导出西安市城市化水平时间路径方程,最后应用多目标遗传算法在不同供水条件下对模型进行求解。结果表明,引入外调水条件下到2025年和2030年,西安市的城市适宜总人口分别为920万人和947万人;GDP为10800亿元和12580亿元。
[Abstract]:City is a comprehensive economic development accompanied by the emergence of a kind of social economic structure and population structure change, the general performance of the population, in certain areas of resources, information, production data and other economic factors are highly concentrated. By the end of 2016 China city rate has reached 57.35%, with the rapid development of city scale the number has brought great pressure to the water supply in the city. Xi'an city is in the semiarid and semi humid area, the shortage of water resources, water resources per capita is only 1/11. of the shortage of water resources in the world per capita water resources significantly restricts the normal development of urbanization of Xi'an city. This paper discusses the urbanization of Xi'an city and the relationship between water the characteristics analysis of the relationship between urbanization and city water, the results for the interaction between them and the law and some quantitative. The main research contents and conclusions as follows : (1) analysis of the water and water features. The trend analysis of Xi'an residents living in water by Mann-Kendall trend of agricultural water use, water and public water use and ecological environment of the industrial trend analysis, and the population of the city as the standard, the city is divided into three stages, city water the characteristics of each stage are analyzed. Results show that agricultural water use is decreasing; industry experienced a process of first increasing and then decreasing water consumption; household water use was significantly increased; the ecological environment of water increased obviously. (2) the construction of city and water coupling degree model. The establishment of evaluation index system, the coupling coordination level of Xi'an city system and water system were determined. The calculation results show that the city system and water system coordination degree increased year by year. From the coupling The coordination level, Xi'an city system and water system respectively after mild disorders, barely coordination, primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination, and ultimately achieve good coordination, showing a trend of benign and sustainable. (3) study on the water resources under the constraint of suitable city scale. Set up the decision-making constraints of water resources the city to develop a multi-objective model based on the gray prediction and two exponential smoothing method and system forecasting methods to predict the indexes related to the values of the model proposed by the United Nations, the two Xi'an City derived level time path equation calculation, finally using multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the model under different water conditions. The results show that the introduction of water diversion conditions in 2025 and 2030, the city of Xi'an city for the total population were 9 million 200 thousand and 9 million 470 thousand; 10800 for GDP billion yuan and 12580 billion yuan.

【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;TV213.4

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