养老地产REITs模式风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 11:52

本文选题：养老地产　切入点：REITs　出处：《江西理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,我国老龄人口面临着增速快、老龄化趋势明显的严峻现状,对养老地产及相应的养老服务的需求也日益增加且多样化,为我国养老地产行业发展提供了良好机遇。目前在我国正处于养老地产行业发展的起步阶段,对目标客户市场的定位还不清晰,划分也不够明确,对养老产业相应的产品把握不全。虽然集养老医疗保健、休闲娱乐于一体的养老产业逐渐兴起,但资金规模需求量大、融资渠道单一的问题使得养老地产得不到与之潜力增速相匹配的发展,这在一定程度上阻碍了养老地产的发展。房地产投资信托基金(Real Estate Investment Trusts简称REITs)作为我国新兴的金融工具,对解决资金过分依赖银行贷款、缓解银行资金压力、拓宽金融投资渠道等方面具有积极作用。养老地产不同于普通的商业和住宅地产,投资回收期较长且具有一定的社会福利性质,开发建设资金若仅依靠银行贷款和自有资金,是远远不够的。因此将REITs应用于养老地产项目中,具有一定的可行性和必要性。在养老地产REITs模式中,涉及的参与方较多,因此要对该模式下的潜在风险进行更为深入的分析,以保证REITs模式在养老地产项目上的成功运用,进而促进我国养老地产的健康有序发展。本文通过理论研究、文献分析调研的方法,分析了我国发展养老地产REITs的可行性和必要性,并从风险识别、风险评估和风险分担等方面构建了养老地产REITs模式的风险管理过程。运用德尔菲法将各风险因素进行划分并取得统计数据,在此基础上,运用灰色—模糊综合评价方法对养老地产REITs模式中所面临的风险进行科学定量的评估,构建了灰色—模糊评价矩阵,利用层次分析法和熵权法确定并改进各个风险指标的权重,明确项目所处的风险水平;最后结合案例项目中的具体情况,从高风险因素方面分析并提出行之有效的解决方法和应对措施,也提出了养老地产REITs模式融资风险分担处理的相关方案。通过研究发现,运营管理风险、市场风险以及政策风险是养老地产REITs模式运行过程中最为突出的三类风险,同时对养老地产REITs模式的风险分担来说,基金管理人、开发商以及投资者均应承担风险。对于国家来说,也应该从法律法规的完善、监管制度的施行来规范养老地产REITs市场。
[Abstract]:At present, the aging population in our country is facing a rapid growth rate and an obvious aging trend. The demand for old-age real estate and the corresponding old-age services is also increasing and diversifying. It provides a good opportunity for the development of the pension real estate industry in our country. At present, it is in the initial stage of the development of the pension real estate industry in our country, the positioning of the target customer market is not clear, and the division of the target customer market is not clear enough. The corresponding products of the old-age industry are not fully grasped. Although the old-age industry, which integrates the medical care for the aged and leisure and entertainment, is gradually emerging, the scale of funds is in great demand. The problem of single financing channel makes the development of pension real estate can not be matched with its potential growth rate, which to some extent hinders the development of pension real estate. Real estate investment trust fund Real Estate Investment Trusts is a new financial instrument in China. It plays a positive role in solving the problem of excessive reliance on bank loans, easing the pressure on bank funds and broadening the channels of financial investment. The old-age real estate is different from ordinary commercial and residential real estate. The payback period of investment is long and has the nature of social welfare. It is far from enough to rely on bank loans and own funds for development and construction funds. Therefore, the application of REITs in pension real estate projects is far from enough. In order to ensure the successful application of the REITs model in the pension real estate project, there are many participants involved in the REITs model, so the potential risk under this model should be analyzed more deeply. Through theoretical research and literature analysis, this paper analyzes the feasibility and necessity of developing endowment property REITs in China, and identifies the risks. In the aspects of risk assessment and risk sharing, the paper constructs the risk management process of pension real estate REITs model, classifies each risk factor and obtains statistical data by Delphi method, and on this basis, The grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk in the old-age real estate REITs model scientifically and quantitatively, and the grey fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed. The weight of each risk index is determined and improved by using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally, combining with the specific situation of the case project, the paper analyzes and puts forward effective solutions and countermeasures from the aspect of high risk factors. The paper also puts forward the related scheme to deal with the financing risk sharing of the pension real estate REITs model. Through the research, it is found that the operation management risk, the market risk and the policy risk are the most prominent three kinds of risks in the operation of the pension real estate REITs model. At the same time, fund managers, developers and investors should bear the risk for the risk sharing of the pension real estate REITs model. For the country, we should standardize the pension real estate REITs market from the perfection of laws and regulations and the implementation of supervision system.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;D669.6

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