房产价格、家庭财富再分配与货币政策有效性——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

发布时间：2018-03-21 12:57

本文选题：货币政策规则　切入点：盯住房价　出处：《南方金融》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着我国住房商品化改革的实施,以及近年来房价的不断上涨,房产已经成为家庭财产的主要组成部分。中国家庭财富再分配格局由此出现了新的变化,家庭财富水平高低主要由其持有房产数量的多寡来划分。本文构建了一个能够体现当前我国房产持有差异的"异质家庭"(划分为富裕家庭、中产家庭、低收入家庭三类)DSGE模型,用以模拟外生的货币政策冲击对主要宏观经济变量波动的影响,以此检验货币政策有效性;并以同质家庭模型作为参照,探讨不同家庭财富分配结构对货币政策有效性的影响机理。实证研究表明:在"异质家庭"条件下,宽松货币政策对消费、投资和总产出的刺激作用被明显削弱,也就是说由房价上涨而导致的家庭财富再分配使货币政策有效性降低。在此背景下,中央银行是否应该采取盯住房价的逆向调节货币政策?进一步的模拟分析表明:在"异质家庭"模型中,盯住房价的货币政策不但加剧房地产市场波动,而且也无益于提升货币政策有效性。根据上述结论,提出两点建议:第一,货币政策本身对改变家庭财富再分配作用有限。提升宏观调控的有效性,还需要综合实施包括土地供给、住房保障、税收调节以及市场监管等在内的一揽子政策措施。第二,鉴于我国居民家庭财富分配不均的局面已经形成,并且居民贷款购房和租房的比例都比较高,因而不宜实行盯住房价的货币政策。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of housing commercialization reform in China and the rising housing prices in recent years, real estate has become a major component of family property. As a result, new changes have taken place in the pattern of redistribution of household wealth in China. The level of family wealth is mainly divided by the amount of real estate they hold. This paper constructs a "heterogeneous family" which can reflect the difference of real estate holding in our country (divided into three types: rich, middle class, low income family), which is divided into three types: rich family, middle class family, low income family, and so on. To test the effectiveness of monetary policy by simulating the impact of exogenous monetary policy shocks on major macroeconomic variables, and using homogenous household models as a reference, This paper probes into the influence mechanism of different household wealth distribution structure on the effectiveness of monetary policy. The empirical study shows that under the condition of "heterogeneous household", the stimulative effect of loose monetary policy on consumption, investment and total output is obviously weakened. That is to say, the redistribution of household wealth caused by rising house prices makes the effectiveness of monetary policy less effective. In this context, should the central bank adopt the reverse adjustment of monetary policy, which is pegged to house prices? Further simulation analysis shows that in the "heterogeneous household" model, monetary policy with house price pegged not only increases the volatility of the real estate market, but also does not contribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy. According to the above conclusions, two suggestions are put forward: first, Monetary policy itself has limited effect on changing the redistribution of household wealth. To enhance the effectiveness of macro-control, we also need to comprehensively implement a package of policy measures, including land supply, housing security, tax regulation and market regulation. Second, In view of the uneven distribution of household wealth in China and the relatively high proportion of housing and rental loans, it is not appropriate to implement the monetary policy of pegging house prices.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行金融研究所;清华大学五道口金融学院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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