民间资本对房地产价格影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 04:35

本文选题：民间资本　切入点：房地产价格　出处：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国民间资本存量在不断增大,但近几年我国经济进入新常态,实体经济萎靡,因此大量的民间资本从实体经济流出并流入上涨预期较强的楼市之中。与此同时,随着国家对房地产市场调控政策的实施,房地产行业通过银行融资的方式难以为继,民间资本在房地产投资资金来源中的占比逐步上升。众所周知房地产是高风险行业,民间资本在为房地产市场提供资金支持的同时,由于民间金融市场盲目性、无序性、趋利性、不规范等缺陷,民间资本过度投资房地产市场极易造成市场泡沫,蕴含着巨大风险。本文主要研究民间资本投资对房地产价格产生的影响,首先介绍我国民间资本投资房地产市场的现状,然后具体介绍民间资本投资房地产市场的途径,主要包括实体投资和房地产金融投资,即从购房需求端和开发供给端进入房地产市场。然后通过运用向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及格兰杰因果关系检验等计量经济学方法从市场整体和供求两个角度对民间资本投资对房地产价格产生的影响进行了实证研究,结果证明除房地产价格自身变量外,民间资本投资房地产市场是引起房价上涨的重要的原因,对房地产价格有显著的促涨作用,且影响时期较长。最后从监管、抑制房地产投机、建立房地产宏观审慎指标体系等方面对民间资本支持房地产市场发展提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the stock of private capital in our country has been increasing, but in recent years, our economy has entered a new normal, and the real economy has been sluggish. As a result, a large amount of private capital flows out of the real economy and flows into the property market, which has strong expectations of rising. At the same time, with the implementation of the state's policy of regulating and controlling the real estate market, the real estate industry is unable to sustain itself through bank financing. As we all know, real estate is a high-risk industry. While providing capital support for the real estate market, private capital has become blind and disorderly in the private financial market. Due to defects such as profit trend and non-standard, private capital overinvestment in real estate market is easy to cause market bubble and contains huge risks. This paper mainly studies the influence of private capital investment on real estate price. This paper first introduces the current situation of private capital investment in real estate market in China, and then introduces the ways of private capital investment in real estate market, mainly including real estate investment and real estate financial investment. That is, entering the real estate market from the demand side of the house purchase and the development and supply side. Then, by using the vector error correction model, the impulse response function, The econometrics methods such as variance decomposition and Granger causality test have made an empirical study on the influence of private capital investment on real estate price from the perspectives of market and supply and demand. The results show that the real estate price has its own variables in addition to the real estate price itself. Private capital investment in the real estate market is an important reason for the rise in house prices, which has a significant effect on promoting real estate prices and has a long influence on them. Finally, from the perspective of supervision and control, real estate speculation is suppressed. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on private capital to support the development of real estate market in the aspects of establishing macroprudential index system of real estate.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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