中国省域人力资本与经济增长关系的动态演化研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 19:54

本文选题：人力资本　切入点：经济增长　出处：《青岛大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经过改革开放四十年的高速发展,中国经济已经进入“新常态”时期,经济增速下降,后续发展势头不足。随着“后发优势”与市场经济释放的“制度红利”、“人口红利”的逐渐消退,当前中国经济正面临着产业结构转型困难、创新驱动能力不足以及供求结构失衡等一系列增长瓶颈,经济持续发展后劲不足的矛盾突显。为解决上述困境,摆脱“中等收入陷阱”约束,实施以人力资本带动经济发展方式转变,充分释放以人力资本带动的“第二次人口红利”,将是有效解决上述问题的主要路径。文章首先对国内外人力资本的研究脉络及成果进行了整理,从概念、核算、与经济增长的关系等多个方面进行具体阐述。其次,详细介绍数据来源与变量选取,在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上建立了综合指标体系。随后,构建中国各区域人力资本与经济增长的多系统耦合模型,探析33年来(1982-2014)两大类系统间的协调演化机制,并对三系统耦合跃迁机制进行了再讨论。然后,文章运用半参数可加模型探究区域间人力资本作用于经济增长的非线性波动特征,分析了人力资本对经济增长的线性、非线性及综合影响效应。最后,采用分位数回归模型分析在特定分位点人力资本等投入量的变化对经济增长贡献力的大小,由此明确各投入要素对区域发展差异的影响。在此基础上,应用面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR),分析城乡人力资本脑力素质和身体素质对经济增长影响的门槛特征与地区差异。研究结果表明,中国各区域人力资本与经济增长两系统间的耦合值较低,由东至西逐级递减,中西部仍处于失调衰退状态,尚未跨越至协调发展阶段,分析表明东部应加快培育人力资本的技术吸收及创新能力,而中西部应加强技术水平的引进及消化能力。另外,半参数可加模型、分位数回归模型及PSTR模型回归结果表明我国人力资本脑力素质与身体素质对经济增长的拉动效应具有显著的地区差异;处于条件分布低端的省份要重视人力资本投资,切实将积累的先进人力资本转化为生产力;处于条件分布高端的省份,经济发展模式要向技术导向性产业倾斜,走可持续发展道路。
[Abstract]:After 40 years of rapid development of reform and opening up, China's economy has entered a period of "new normal", and the growth rate of the economy has declined. The momentum of subsequent development is insufficient. With the "late-development advantage" and the "institutional dividend" released by the market economy, and the gradual extinction of the "demographic dividend", the Chinese economy is now facing difficulties in the transformation of its industrial structure. A series of growth bottlenecks, such as insufficient innovation-driven capacity and unbalanced supply and demand structure, are highlighted in the contradiction of insufficient stamina for sustained economic development. In order to solve the above difficulties, we should get rid of the "middle-income trap" constraint. To implement the transformation of the mode of economic development driven by human capital, Fully releasing the "second demographic dividend" driven by human capital will be the main way to solve the above problems effectively. Secondly, the data source and variable selection are introduced in detail, and a comprehensive index system is established based on the existing research results. This paper constructs a multi-system coupling model of human capital and economic growth in different regions of China, analyzes the coordination and evolution mechanism between the two kinds of systems in the past 33 years, and discusses the three-system coupling transition mechanism again. In this paper, the semi-parametric additive model is used to study the nonlinear fluctuation characteristics of human capital acting on economic growth, and the linear, nonlinear and comprehensive effects of human capital on economic growth are analyzed. The quantile regression model is used to analyze the contribution of human capital input to economic growth at specific loci, and the influence of input factors on regional development is clarified. Using the panel smooth transformation regression model (PSTR), this paper analyzes the threshold characteristics and regional differences between urban and rural human capital brainpower and physical fitness on economic growth. The coupling value between the two systems of human capital and economic growth in various regions of China is relatively low, gradually decreasing from east to west, and the central and western regions are still in a state of maladjustment and recession and have not yet crossed the stage of coordinated development. The analysis shows that the eastern part should speed up the cultivation of the technological absorption and innovation ability of human capital, while the central and western regions should strengthen the ability of introducing and digesting the technology level. In addition, the semi-parametric additive model should be used. The results of quantile regression model and PSTR model show that there are significant regional differences in the pull effects of human capital mental quality and physical fitness on economic growth in China, and the provinces with low condition distribution should pay attention to human capital investment. The advanced human capital accumulated should be transformed into productive forces, and the economic development model of the provinces in the high end of conditional distribution should be inclined to the technology-oriented industry and take the road of sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2;F124.1

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