基于模糊综合评价法的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 20:00

本文选题：风险　切入点：城市轨道交通　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国城市轨道交通发展迅速,未来建设需求强烈。城市轨道交通项目建设所需资金体量大、运营成本高等特点使得PPP模式逐渐成为传统建设模式的重要补充。然而,城市轨道交通项目具有资金回收期长、资产专用性强等项目特点,PPP模式具有公私多方合作、合约期长且内容复杂等模式特点,项目、模式特点引致的一系列风险可能对项目的顺利实施产生严重威胁。因此,客观、有效地对城市轨道交通PPP项目进行风险识别、评价显得尤为重要。为客观识别、评价城市轨道交通PPP项目风险,本文首先从项目、模式特点出发,运用不完全契约、机会主义等理论解释关键风险因素产生机理。其次,通过回顾关于城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评价的已有研究确定风险清单,设计了三个评价维度,具体包括风险发生概率、风险发生后果严重程度和已识别风险的不可控程度,并运用德尔菲问卷确定关键风险因素及风险分类,通过构建云并对云进行纵向综合与横向综合处理求取综合了所有维度、所有风险因素的评价云。研究发现,城市轨道交通PPP项目存在诸多风险与不确定性,且项目特点与项目风险存在密切联系。其资产专用性特点可引致违约风险、长期复杂性合约可引致合同不完备风险、项目模式其他特点可引致其他风险。通过运用模糊综合评价法对S市地铁6号线进行风险评价实例研究,共识别出36种可能的项目风险因素、筛选出19种对项目有较大影响可能性的关键风险因素,并将19种关键风险因素划分为"政府部门主导风险"、"项目公司主导风险"和"宏观因素主导风险"三种风险类别。研究发现,S市地铁6号线项目风险发生概率大小介于"低"与"中等"之间,风险发生后果严重程度和已识别风险的不可控程度介于"中等"与"高"之间,且项目风险发生概率与风险发生后果的严重程度近乎"中等"水平,已识别风险的不可控程度水平偏高,项目整体风险水平介于"低"与"高"之间且偏于"中等"。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of urban rail transit in China and the strong demand for future construction, the PPP model has gradually become an important supplement to the traditional construction mode because of the large amount of funds needed for the construction of urban rail transit projects and the high operating costs. Urban rail transit projects have the characteristics of long payback period, strong asset specificity and so on. PPP model has the characteristics of public-private cooperation, long contract period and complex content. A series of risks caused by pattern characteristics may pose a serious threat to the smooth implementation of the project. Therefore, objective and effective risk identification and evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project is particularly important. To evaluate the risk of urban rail transit (PPP) project, this paper first explains the mechanism of the key risk factors by using incomplete contract and opportunism from the characteristics of the project and the mode. By reviewing the existing research on the risk evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project and determining the risk list, three evaluation dimensions are designed, including the probability of risk occurrence, the severity of risk consequences and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk. And using Delphi questionnaire to determine the key risk factors and risk classification, through the construction of clouds and vertical and horizontal synthesis of the cloud to synthesize all dimensions, all risk factors evaluation cloud. There are many risks and uncertainties in urban rail transit PPP project, and the characteristics of the project are closely related to the project risk. The characteristics of asset specificity can lead to default risk, and long-term complex contract can lead to incomplete contract risk. Other characteristics of the project mode can lead to other risks. By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study the risk evaluation of Metro Line 6 in S City, 36 possible project risk factors are identified. Select 19 key risk factors that have a greater impact on the project, 19 kinds of key risk factors are divided into three types: "government department leading risk", "project company leading risk" and "macro factor leading risk". Small between "low" and "medium", The degree of risk occurrence consequence and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk are between "medium" and "high", and the probability of occurrence of project risk and the severity of risk consequence are close to "medium" level. The uncontrollable level of the identified risk is on the high side, and the overall risk level of the project is between "low" and "high" and "moderate".
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F572.3;F283

【参考文献】