房价波动对我国居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 17:10

本文选题：房地产价格波动　切入点：消费支出　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年,我国住房制度改革,房价进入持续上涨时期,房地产市场也被投资者发现,并逐渐成为我国城镇居民家庭财富组成中的重要部分,且在家庭财富组成中所占比例呈逐渐增长的趋势。因此,当房地产成为家庭财富的重要组成部分,而家庭财富的水平又是影响居民家庭消费水平的主要因素之一时,我国房地产价格的波动必然会对我国居民消费水平产生很大的影响。由于国家的大力扶植,房地产行业飞速发展,在国民经济中占有越来越重要的地位,已经逐渐成为我国的一大经济产业支柱。因此为了把我国当前由外需、投资拉动经济,逐渐转变为靠内需拉动经济,弄清楚我国房地产价格波动与我国居民消费水平的内在联系就显得越来越重要。本文创新地以不同收入群体消费水平受房价波动的影响为着眼点和研究思路。首先运用理论分析了房价波动与居民消费支出的内在联系,并详细分析了房地产价格波动影响居民消费这一传导机制;然后利用我国2002年2015年的各季度数据作为支持进行实证,检验我国不同收入群体消费支出受房地产价格波动的影响,并得出结论;最后,结合我国实际情况与结论,为我国制定房地产市场调控政策提供一些政策建议。实证部分,本文根据2002-2015年我国不同收入群体的消费性支出、人均可支配收入、商品房销售价格、股票价格指数等数据,先后进行了单位根检验,协整检验,格兰杰因果检验,建立了 VAR模型和个体固定效应模型去深入分析我国房地产价格波动对不同收入群体消费水平的影响。本文的实证结果表明,在影响居民消费支出的各种因素中,可支配收入这一要素仍是最主要的;房价的过快上涨对低收入群体的消费支出基本没有影响;房价的过快上涨抑制了中等收入群体和高收入群体的消费支出,房地产财富效应整体表现为负效应,即房地产价格的上涨导致的房产增值并没有促进居民消费,反而对居民消费产生了明显的"挤出效应"。并针对这一研究结果分析了原因,并提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the reform of housing system in our country, the real estate market has also been discovered by investors, and has gradually become an important part of the family wealth of urban residents in our country. Therefore, when real estate becomes an important part of household wealth, and the level of household wealth is one of the main factors affecting household consumption, The fluctuation of real estate prices in our country will inevitably have a great impact on the consumption level of Chinese residents. With the support of the country, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and occupied an increasingly important position in the national economy. Has gradually become a pillar of our country's economic industry. Therefore, in order to shift our country's current economy from external demand to investment-led economy, it is gradually changing to relying on domestic demand to pull the economy. It is more and more important to find out the internal relation between the fluctuation of real estate price and the consumption level of Chinese residents. This paper focuses on the effect of the fluctuation of house price on the consumption level of different income groups. First of all, the internal relationship between the fluctuation of house price and the consumption expenditure of residents is analyzed by using the theory. The paper also analyzes the transmission mechanism of the real estate price fluctuation affecting residents' consumption in detail, and then uses the quarterly data of China's 2002 and 2015 as evidence to test that the consumption expenditure of different income groups is affected by the fluctuation of real estate price. Finally, according to the actual situation and conclusion of our country, it provides some policy suggestions for China to formulate the real estate market regulation policy. In the empirical part, according to the consumption expenditure of different income groups in China from 2002 to 2015, Per capita disposable income, sale price of commercial housing, stock price index and other data have been tested successively by unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, etc. VAR model and individual fixed effect model are established to analyze the effect of real estate price fluctuation on the consumption level of different income groups in China. The factor of disposable income remains the most important; the excessive rise in house prices has little effect on consumer spending among low-income groups; and the excessive rise in house prices inhibits consumer spending among the middle-income and high-income groups. The real estate wealth effect as a whole shows negative effect, that is, the real estate value added caused by the rise of real estate price does not promote the residents' consumption, on the contrary, it has obvious "crowding out effect" on the residents' consumption. And put forward the relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

【参考文献】