房地产投资挤出效应及对经济增长的影响—来自290个地级市面板数据的分析

发布时间：2018-03-30 14:38

本文选题：房地产投资　切入点：经济增长　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着房地产逐渐发展成国民经济的支柱产业,房地产投资对经济增长的影响也越来越受到学界关注。过多加大房地产投资,意味着挤占了非房地产投资,我国房地产投资是否存在挤出效应以及地区差异性,如果考虑挤出效应,房地产投资又会对经济增长有何影响,这正是本文的研究出发点。因此本文将在以往学者研究的基础上,通过实证加以检验和研究。通过本文研究为政府的房地产宏观调控决策提供一定的理论指导和依据。本文首先介绍了研究背景,房地产投资发展迅猛,可能出现投资过大而产生投资挤出效应,并从理论上分析房地产投资挤出效应内涵、存在性机理和房地产投资挤出效应如何影响经济增长;而后分析我国房地产投资和经济增长的现状,从描述统计角度阐述了我国房地产投资及GDP的分布状况,并指出我国房地产投资发展可能存在的一些问题;接着本文以全国1995-2015年的房地产投资、非房地产投资和GDP数据为样本指标,通过模型验证了我国房地产投资挤出效应的存在性。同时借鉴AgosinMayer研究思路,构建房地产投资挤出效应面板模型,并分东、中、西地区对比,结果表明我国东部地区房地产投资挤出效应较强,而中西部地区相对较弱,说明东部地区增加房地产投资,引起的外部性较大;最后,本文以全国2000-2015年290个地级市面板数据为样本,构建加入挤出效应的基于Feder两部门的面板模型,分析房地产投资对经济增长的影响,并用普通面板回归模型进行对比验证,结果表明,考虑挤出效应后,房地产投资对经济增长的影响系数明显降低,从全国东、中、西地区对比来看,也证明了同样的结论,说明这种房地产投资所带来挤出效应将对整个经济发展产生一定的负面影响,带来一定的负外部性。本文将理论与实证相结合,研究了我国房地产投资挤出效应相关问题,得出相应合理结论。国家在进行房地产宏观政策调控时,需要考虑挤出效应所带来的影响,避免过度投资而产生负外部性,为不同地区政府和企业进行房地产投资提供一定的参考依据。同时对促进产业投资协调发展、房地产业与国民经济协调发展有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of real estate as a pillar industry of national economy, the influence of real estate investment on economic growth has been paid more and more attention.Excessive increase in real estate investment means that non-real estate investment is being squeezed out. Is there an crowding out effect and regional differences in real estate investment in China? if crowding-out effects are considered, what impact will real estate investment have on economic growth?This is the starting point of this study.Therefore, this paper will test and research through empirical research on the basis of previous scholars.This paper provides some theoretical guidance and basis for the government's macro-control decision-making of real estate.This paper first introduces the research background, the real estate investment develops rapidly, may have the investment crowding-out effect, and theoretically analyzes the real estate investment crowding-out effect connotation.After analyzing the current situation of real estate investment and economic growth in China, the paper describes the distribution of real estate investment and GDP in China from the perspective of descriptive statistics.Then this paper takes the real estate investment, non-real estate investment and GDP data of the whole country from 1995 to 2015 as the sample index, and verifies the existence of the crowding-out effect of the real estate investment in our country through the model.At the same time, using AgosinMayer as a reference, a panel model of real estate investment crowding-out effect is constructed, which is divided into east, middle and west regions. The results show that the real estate investment crowding-out effect is stronger in the eastern part of China, but relatively weak in the central and western regions.The results show that the increase of real estate investment in the eastern region leads to greater externalities. Finally, based on the panel data of 290 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2015, this paper constructs a panel model based on Feder, which is based on crowding-out effect.This paper analyzes the impact of real estate investment on economic growth, and compares it with the ordinary panel regression model. The results show that the influence coefficient of real estate investment on economic growth is obviously reduced after taking into account the extrusion effect, from the east to the middle of China.The contrast in the western region also proves the same conclusion, which shows that the crowding out effect brought by the real estate investment will have a certain negative impact on the whole economic development and bring about certain negative externalities.This paper combines the theory with the empirical research, studies the problems related to the extrusion effect of real estate investment in China, and draws the corresponding reasonable conclusions.In order to avoid overinvestment and negative externality, the government should take into account the influence of crowding out effect in the macro-policy regulation of real estate, and provide some reference for the government and enterprises in different regions to invest in real estate.At the same time, it has important guiding significance to promote the coordinated development of industrial investment, real estate and national economy.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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