商业养老地产投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 14:49

本文选题：商业养老地产　切入点：风险评价　出处：《西华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今房地产行业处于急需变革时期,各大房地产企业也在积极寻找适合房企的发展之路。而随着老龄化趋势的日益严重,养老产业发展势头强劲,市场养老是新常态所需。把房地产和养老结合起来的商业养老地产是房地产行业细分出来的新兴市场。由于商业养老地产复杂的复合特性,在政策、市场、机制、盈利模式等未明朗的情况下进行投资,将面临更多、更为复杂的风险。本文基于开发商的角度,针对性探讨商业养老地产投资过程中面临的风险并进行风险评价研究,以期更好地规避防范风险。首先,在对国内外学者关于房地产投资风险评价、养老地产研究、养老地产投资风险评价研究的基础上,明确了现阶段的研究现状,针对性地提出了研究视角和方法。综合定义了商业养老地产的含义,对商业养老地产的特性、产业结构进行了探讨,并梳理了商业养老地产投资风险评价的相关理论基础;其次,分析了目前影响商业养老地产投资风险的影响因素,在文献研究和问卷调查的基础上整理出了全面的评价指标体系,并通过Vague集方法进行指标筛选,得到了由市场风险、经济风险、技术风险、开发选址风险、运营管理风险、政策法律风险6个一级指标,养老文化差异风险、市场定价风险、二次租售风险等26个二级指标构成的评价指标体系,并对指标进行了分析;最后,构建了AHP法和熵权法组合赋权的模糊综合评价模型,通过选取A项目进行评价研究,研究结论与实际情况基本相符,提出了A项目投资风险防范措施,并基于商业养老地产的一般特性总结了商业养老地产投资风险共性防范对策。研究的创新点主要有:在已有评价基础上,增加了对于消费者的调查研究以及商业养老地产的特性、现状、政策研究,提出了一套较为完善的商业养老地产投资风险评价指标体系;细分了养老地产研究的领域,定义了商业养老地产,引入了政策、法律等对商业养老地产投资风险的影响;改善评价指标权重的确定,用主客观结合的方法改进模糊综合评价模型,使模型能够更好的为开发商进行投资风险评价提供参考以及为后续研究做出贡献。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the real estate industry is in a period of urgent need of change, and the major real estate enterprises are also actively looking for a suitable way for the development of housing enterprises. However, with the aging trend becoming increasingly serious, the pension industry has a strong momentum of development. The commercial endowment real estate which combines the real estate and the pension is the emerging market that the real estate industry subdivides. Because of the complex complex characteristic of the commercial endowment real estate, in the policy, the market, the mechanism, This paper, based on the perspective of developers, will discuss the risks faced in the investment process of commercial endowment real estate and carry out risk evaluation research. First of all, on the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars on real estate investment risk evaluation, pension real estate research, pension real estate investment risk evaluation research, clear the current research status. This paper puts forward the research angle and method, comprehensively defines the meaning of commercial endowment real estate, probes into the characteristics and industrial structure of commercial endowment real estate, and combs the relevant theoretical basis of risk evaluation of commercial endowment real estate investment. Secondly, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the investment risk of commercial endowment real estate, collates the comprehensive evaluation index system on the basis of literature research and questionnaire survey, and selects the index by Vague set method, and obtains the market risk. The evaluation index system is composed of economic risk, technical risk, development location risk, operation management risk, policy and law risk, pension culture difference risk, market pricing risk, secondary lease and sale risk, etc. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the combination of AHP and entropy weight method is constructed, and the conclusion is basically consistent with the actual situation by selecting item A for evaluation research. Based on the general characteristics of commercial endowment real estate, this paper puts forward the preventive measures of investment risk of project A, and sums up the common countermeasures of risk prevention of commercial endowment real estate investment. The innovations of the research are as follows: on the basis of existing evaluation, It has increased the investigation and research of consumers and the characteristics, present situation, policy research of commercial endowment real estate, put forward a set of relatively perfect evaluation index system of commercial endowment real estate investment risk, subdivided the field of pension real estate research, This paper defines commercial endowment real estate, introduces the influence of policy and law on the investment risk of commercial endowment real estate, improves the determination of evaluation index weight, and improves the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model by combining subjective and objective methods. The model can provide reference for developer investment risk assessment and contribute to further research.
【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F299.23;D669.6

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