企业职工预期退休年龄及影响因素的实证研究——基于我国10省市调查数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-01 08:04

本文选题：企业职工　切入点：预期退休年龄　出处：《西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年02期

【摘要】：企业职工作为退休年龄政策调整的最大影响群体,其预期退休意愿及影响因素尤其值得关注。本文基于教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"渐进式延迟退休年龄政策的社会经济效应研究"的十省市调查数据,采用有序Logistic回归分析实证检验了企业职工预期退休年龄的影响因素。研究发现:(1)性别因素、年龄因素、健康因素、抚养赡养人数以及现行的缴费政策、对养老金改革的认知都对企业职工的预期退休年龄年限产生显著性影响。(2)从个体特征来看,女性的预期退休年龄低于男性的预期退休年龄,年龄越高的预期退休年龄年限越长,但是31-45岁的预期退休年龄年限最短。健康程度以及收入越高,预期退休年龄年限越长。(3)在家庭因素方面,抚养赡养3人的预期退休年龄年限最长,抚养赡养4人及以上的预期退休年龄年限最短。(4)在政策因素方面,认为养老保险缴费政策对生活有影响的,预期退休年龄年限最短。在对养老金改革认知上,维持养老金政策现状的预期退休年龄年限最短,将现阶段个人账户缴费率降低到5%,适当延长缴费年限的预期退休年龄年限最长。
[Abstract]:As the most influential group in the adjustment of retirement age policy, This paper is based on the survey data of ten provinces and cities of the key research project of philosophy and social science of the Ministry of Education, "the Social and Economic effects of gradual delayed Retirement Age Policy". The paper empirically examined the influencing factors of expected retirement age of employees by using ordered Logistic regression analysis. The study found that: 1) gender factors, age factors, health factors, number of dependents and current contribution policies. The cognition of pension reform has a significant impact on the expected retirement age of enterprise workers. (2) from the individual characteristics, the expected retirement age of women is lower than that of men, and the older the expected retirement age, the longer the expected retirement age. But the expected retirement age of 31-45 years is the shortest. The higher the health and income, the longer the expected retirement age. In terms of policy factors, if the contribution policy of old-age insurance has an impact on life, the expected retirement age is the shortest. In terms of the cognition of pension reform, To maintain the current status quo of pension policy, the expected retirement age is the shortest, the individual account contribution rate is reduced to 5 percent at the present stage, and the expected retirement age is the longest for the appropriate extension of the contributory years.
【作者单位】：西北大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD026)
【分类号】：F249.2

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