城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 13:01

本文选题：城市轨道交通　切入点：PPP　出处：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,PPP(Public-Private Partnership)模式在我国城市轨道交通领域得到了极大的发展,有效地缓解了政府财政预算压力,提高了城市轨道交通的供给数量、质量和效率。城市轨道交通PPP项目在特许经营期结束后,需将整套项目移交于政府部门,在漫长的特许经营期内,各种风险因素随机发生且错综复杂,增加了项目目标实现的难度,使得政府部门与私营企业移交时面临的项目价值受损问题,此时残值风险问题集中暴露,对项目移交后的性能、社会经济效益及可持续性等造成很大的影响,严重阻碍城市轨道交通的稳健发展,因此理清城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险因素,确定不同风险因素对残值的作用效果,实现整个特许经营期内城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险的监测和防控,对其顺利移交具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。因此,本文对城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险影响因素进行了深入的研究。首先简要回顾PPP项目风险管理、PPP项目残值风险及城市轨道交通PPP项目的相关理论及研究现状,提出研究城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险的必要性;其次,通过文献梳理结合相关案例,对城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险因素进行归纳与分析,并构建残值风险因素的社会网络关系,确定残值风险因素之间的相关关系,进而识别出关键风险因素。然后以系统思考为基础,构建因果关系图,通过编写数学方程式,构建其残值风险SD模型,以实现残值风险的定量分析和动态预测。借助Vensim平台进行仿真研究,结果表明:不同风险因素对城市轨道交通PPP项目残值风险的作用效果存在差异,其中政府补贴、工程质量、客流量、定价收费及运营服务质量对PPP项目残值风险起减弱抑制作用;通货膨胀、建设成本、年运营成本、同类竞争项目、维修/维护成本则对PPP项目残值风险起加强促进作用。当项目处在某一阶段促进作用合力大于抑制作用合力时,PPP项目残值风险增加,反之则减小。最后根据仿真结果,从政府补贴机制、建设成本管控、精简年运营成本、扩大客流量、定价等关键因素方面提出不同阶段改善残值风险的对策及建议,实现残值风险的事前、事中、事后控制,达到降低残值风险,保证项目顺利移交和稳健发展的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the PPP- Public-Private Partnership (PPP- Private Partnership) model has been greatly developed in the field of urban rail transit in China, which has effectively alleviated the pressure on the government budget and improved the quantity, quality and efficiency of the supply of urban rail transit.After the franchise period of urban rail transit PPP project, it is necessary to transfer the whole project to the government department. During the long franchise period, various risk factors occur randomly and intricate, which increases the difficulty of the realization of the project objectives.This makes the value of the project damaged when the government departments and private enterprises are handed over. At this time, the risk of residual value is exposed in a concentrated way, which has a great impact on the performance, social and economic benefits and sustainability of the project after the handover.It seriously hinders the steady development of urban rail transit, so it clarifies the risk factors of residual value of PPP project of urban rail transit, and determines the effect of different risk factors on residual value.It is of great theoretical and practical value to realize the monitoring and prevention and control of residual value risk of urban rail transit PPP project during the whole franchise period.Therefore, this paper carries on the thorough research to the urban rail transit PPP project residual value risk factor.Firstly, this paper briefly reviews the risk management of PPP project and the related theories and research status of PPP project of urban rail transit, and puts forward the necessity of studying residual risk of PPP project of urban rail transit.Through literature combing combined with relevant cases, the residual risk factors of urban rail transit PPP project are summarized and analyzed, and the social network relationship of residual risk factors is constructed to determine the correlation between residual risk factors.Then the key risk factors are identified.Then on the basis of systematic thinking, the causality diagram is constructed, and the SD model of residual risk is constructed by compiling mathematical equation, so as to realize quantitative analysis and dynamic prediction of residual risk.The results show that different risk factors have different effects on residual risk of PPP project of urban rail transit, including government subsidy, project quality, passenger flow, etc.Pricing and quality of service play a weakening and restraining role on residual risk of PPP project, inflation, construction cost, annual operating cost, similar competitive project, maintenance / maintenance cost play an important role in promoting residual risk of PPP project.The risk of residual value of PPP project increases when the promotive force is greater than the inhibitory force at a certain stage, otherwise it decreases.Finally, according to the simulation results, from the government subsidy mechanism, construction cost control, reduce the annual operating cost, expand the passenger flow, pricing and other key factors to improve the residual risk countermeasures and suggestions in different stages, to achieve the residual risk in advance.After the event, control, to reduce the residual risk, to ensure the smooth transfer and steady development of the project.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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