基于灰色模糊理论的“鑫佳玫瑰园”项目的财务分析与风险研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 10:52

本文选题：可行性研究　切入点：财务分析　出处：《西南科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的快速发展,城市建设的需求越来越突出,开发商纷纷涉足房地产开发投资,房地产投资项目投资数巨大,而且开发项目建设周期长、牵涉面广、所含工程项目多,风险因素高。一旦投资决策失误,不仅项目会受到影响,企业蒙受损失,相关行业也可能受到波及。因此采取科学的理论对项目进行准确的分析是投资决策成功的前提。本文在前期市场调查的基础上,进行了项目规划,然后采用了灰色模糊综合法对兼具灰色性和模糊性的房地产价格进行初步确定,进而得出销售总收入约为13亿,最终拟定建设方案,并通过严谨计算得到本项目的内部收益率为42.66%,动态投资回收期为2.55年;应用灰色系统评价法对该项目风险进行了评估,把风险评估从定性分析转变为了定量分析,使风险程度更加明确。综合论证得出结论:本项目在经济上是可行的,在财务上是盈利的,在风险上是合理的。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the demand for urban construction is more and more prominent. Developers have set foot in real estate development investment. The investment in real estate investment projects is huge, and the construction period of development projects is long and involves a wide range.There are many engineering projects and high risk factors.If the investment decision fails, not only will the project be affected, the enterprise will suffer the loss, the related industry may also be affected.Therefore, it is the premise of successful investment decision to adopt scientific theory to analyze the project accurately.On the basis of the previous market investigation, this paper carries on the project planning, and then uses the grey fuzzy synthesis method to determine the real estate price with both grey and fuzziness, and then obtains that the total sales income is about 1.3 billion,Finally, the construction scheme is drawn up, and the internal rate of return of the project is 42.66, and the dynamic investment payback period is 2.55 years. The risk of the project is evaluated by using the grey system evaluation method.The risk assessment is changed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis, which makes the degree of risk more clear.The conclusion is that the project is economically feasible, financially profitable and reasonable in risk.
【学位授予单位】：西南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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