人口与土地城镇化区域效应异质性研究——基于1990—2012年284个城市的经验数据分析

发布时间：2018-04-09 20:35

本文选题：人口城镇化　切入点：土地城镇化　出处：《湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：人口与土地城镇化异步发展困局是城镇化发展中的难题,东部土地城镇化模式能否成功复制到中西部区域,从而有效地带动人口城镇化的发展呢?运用塞尔指数从空间和时间两个维度来分析人口与土地城镇化的协调度,发现区域内部差异要大于区域间差异,西部区域差异明显要大于东中部区域,西部地区土地城镇化的加速扩张并没有促进人口城镇化的同步增长。并运用1990—2012年284个城市面板数据进行实证分析,经验研究表明:土地城镇化显著拉动了人口城镇化进程,并随着分位数的提高影响系数增大。从区域来看,东中部地区土地城镇化对人口城镇化具有拉动效应,而西部地区并不显著;从城市规模来看,大中城市土地城镇化显著促进了人口城镇化发展,而小城市并不显著。土地城镇化对于人口城镇化的吸纳作用存在空间异质性,西部城镇化发展不能简单复制东部城镇化发展模式,应实行差异化的区域城镇化发展战略,强化大中型城市对于人口的吸纳作用,市场与政府双重合力下的城镇化发展更多地要发挥市场机制,遵循城镇化发展规律。
[Abstract]:The asynchronous development of population and land urbanization is a difficult problem in the development of urbanization. Can the model of land urbanization in eastern China be successfully replicated to the central and western regions so as to effectively promote the development of population urbanization?Using Searle index to analyze the coordination degree of population and land urbanization from two dimensions of space and time, it is found that the regional difference is greater than the inter-regional difference, and the western regional difference is obviously greater than that of the eastern and central regions.The accelerated expansion of land urbanization in western China has not promoted the simultaneous growth of population urbanization.The empirical analysis of 284 urban panel data from 1990 to 2012 shows that the urbanization of land has significantly promoted the process of population urbanization and the influence coefficient increases with the increase of quantiles.From a regional point of view, land urbanization in the eastern and central regions has a pull effect on population urbanization, while the western region is not significant. In terms of urban scale, land urbanization in large and medium-sized cities has significantly promoted the development of population urbanization.Small cities are not significant.There is spatial heterogeneity in the role of land urbanization in the absorption of population urbanization. The development of urbanization in the west can not simply replicate the development model of urbanization in the east, but should implement the differentiated regional urbanization development strategy.In order to strengthen the role of large and medium-sized cities in absorbing the population, the development of urbanization under the combination of market and government should give full play to the market mechanism and follow the law of urbanization development.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“城镇化背景下粮食结构性失衡应对政策研究”(项目编号:16BJY105) 湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会重点项目“城镇化结构均衡发展机理与实现路径研究”(项目编号:XSP17ZDI028)
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.23

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