基于IO-SDA中国虚拟水贸易格局及驱动因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-12 18:37

本文选题：虚拟水贸易 + 投入产出分析　；参考：《节水灌溉》2017年05期

【摘要】：虚拟水贸易作为解决缺水地区的水资源供需矛盾问题的战略受到越来越广泛的关注,量化地区虚拟水贸易格局,并分析该格局下区域虚拟水贸易量变动的驱动因素是研究虚拟水和水资源管理的新思路。首先运用投入产出模型计算出2002-2011年中国虚拟水进出口贸易量,分析中国当前虚拟水贸易格局,再运用结构分解法,分解出强度效应、结构效应和规模效应对虚拟水净进口贸易量变动的驱动力。研究结果表明:中国虚拟水贸易呈现净出口状态,其中制造业和农业的虚拟水进口和出口贸易量最大,占虚拟水进出口总量比例最高,是当前中国虚拟水贸易格局的决定产业。规模要素对中国虚拟水净进口贸易量变动逐渐由负向驱动变成正向驱动,强度要素和规模要素对虚拟水净进口贸易起正向作用。了解中国虚拟水贸易格局,探索虚拟水政策化是实现水资源优化配置的重要途径之一,能为中国缓解用水矛盾,解决水资源短缺危机提供一个新视角。
[Abstract]:Virtual water trade, as a strategy to solve the contradiction between water resources supply and demand in water shortage areas, has attracted more and more attention.It is a new idea to study virtual water and water resources management by analyzing the driving factors of the change of regional virtual water trade under this situation.Firstly, using the input-output model to calculate the import and export trade volume of virtual water in China from 2002 to 2011, the current pattern of virtual water trade in China is analyzed, and then the intensity effect is decomposed by using the structural decomposition method.Structure effect and scale effect on the driving force of fictitious net water import volume change.The results show that China's virtual water trade presents a net export state, in which the import and export volume of virtual water in manufacturing and agriculture is the largest, accounting for the highest proportion of the total volume of virtual water imports and exports, which is the decisive industry of China's virtual water trade pattern at present.The change of scale factor to China's virtual net water import volume gradually changed from negative driving to positive driving, while intensity factor and scale factor played a positive role in virtual water net import trade.Understanding China's virtual water trade pattern and exploring virtual water policy is one of the important ways to realize optimal allocation of water resources. It can provide a new perspective for China to alleviate the contradiction of water use and solve the crisis of water shortage.
【作者单位】：河海大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校业务费项目(2014B09414)
【分类号】：F224;F752

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