“一带一路”国家全要素生产率及其影响因素分析研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 02:24

本文选题：“一带一路” + Malmquist生产率指数　；参考：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,中国经济持续下行,已经进入经济“新常态”,争取外部资源,加强经济对外合作,是中国经济走向可持续发展道路的途径之一。于是,“一带一路”战略顺势而生,其目的为带动自身和外部国家经济的共同增长。而如何实现沿线国家经济的协调共同增长?这是一个现实难题。只有从沿线各国经济发展的基本现状出发,才会实现沿线各国经济的共同发展。而经济发展的核心指标即为全要素生产率,因此,研究“一带一路”国家的全要素生产率及其影响因素有着重要的现实意义。本文使用1995年-2014年的跨国国面板数据,首次测算并探讨“一带一路”国家的全要素生产率及其影响因素。通过理论分析和实证研究得出主要结论有:(1)样本时间内,沿线各国平均TFP年均下降0.3%。其中,技术进步下降3.3%,规模效率增长1.9%,纯技术效率增长1.3%。(2)政府行为与TFP正相关。贸易可以促进亚洲的TFP增长,但不能促进欧洲。工业化提升了欧洲的TFP,但对亚洲却没有提升作用。信息化仅提升了亚洲的TFP。创新对亚洲的影响显著为负,对欧洲则有显著的促进作用。医疗卫生对欧洲有着促进作用,而对亚洲却有抑制性。经济发展水平促进了欧洲,但对亚洲却没有促进作用。城镇化与亚洲的TFP正相关,与欧洲的负相关。(3)各因素对TFP的作用机制也存在差异。政府行为对亚欧的技术进步均有促进性,对规模效率均有抑制性,而且亚洲的政府行为对纯技术效率有着积极作用,则降低了欧洲的纯技术效率。亚洲国家的贸易对三者均有促进作用,但欧洲的贸易仅提高了纯技术效率。工业化可以提高亚洲的规模效率,降低技术进步和纯技术效率;提高欧洲的技术进步和纯技术效率,降低了规模效率。信息化对亚洲的纯技术效率和规模效率有推动作用,对欧洲的纯技术效率有着推动作用。创新则通过推动技术进步、纯技术效率和规模效率来实现对欧洲全要素生产率的驱动,但仅对亚洲的纯技术效率有着提升作用。医疗卫生可以有效推动纯技术效率和规模效率的提升。经济发展水平与亚欧的技术进步均正相关,也与亚洲国家的纯技术效率正相关。城镇化对亚洲的技术进步、欧洲的纯技术效率均有促进作用。金融支持对亚欧国家的技术进步都有着积极意义,还对欧洲的纯技术效率有着促进性。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economy continues to decline, has entered the "new normal" of the economy, striving for external resources and strengthening economic cooperation with foreign countries is one of the ways for China's economy to move towards the path of sustainable development.Therefore, Belt and Road's strategy came into being in order to promote the economic growth of its own and external countries.And how to realize the coordinated economic growth of the countries along the route?This is a practical problem.Only by proceeding from the basic status quo of the economic development of the countries along the route, can the common economic development of the countries along the route be realized.The core index of economic development is total factor productivity, so it is of great practical significance to study the total factor productivity and its influencing factors in Belt and Road country.Using the panel data of transnational countries from 1995 to 2014, this paper measures and discusses the total factor productivity and its influencing factors of "Belt and Road" country for the first time.Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) within the sample time, the average TFP of the countries along the route decreased by 0.3% per year.Among them, the technological progress drops 3.3%, the scale efficiency increases 1.9%, the pure technical efficiency increases 1.3%, and the government behavior is positively related to TFP.Trade can boost TFP growth in Asia, but not Europe.Industrialization has boosted TFPs in Europe, but not in Asia.Informatization only improves TFPs in Asia.Innovation has a significant negative impact on Asia and a significant boost to Europe.Health care promotes Europe, but inhibits Asia.Economic growth has helped Europe, but not Asia.Urbanization is positively related to TFP in Asia and negatively related to TFP in Europe.Government behavior promotes the technological progress in Asia and Europe, and inhibits the scale efficiency. Moreover, the government behavior in Asia has a positive effect on the pure technical efficiency, which reduces the pure technical efficiency in Europe.Asian trade promotes all three, but European trade only improves pure technical efficiency.Industrialization can improve the scale efficiency of Asia, reduce the technological progress and pure technical efficiency, and increase the technological progress and pure technical efficiency in Europe, thus reducing the scale efficiency.Informatization promotes pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency in Asia and promotes pure technical efficiency in Europe.Innovation drives the total factor productivity of Europe by promoting technological progress, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency, but it only promotes the pure technological efficiency in Asia.Health care can effectively promote pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency.The level of economic development is positively related to the technological progress in Asia and Europe as well as to the pure technical efficiency of Asian countries.Urbanization promotes technological progress in Asia and pure technical efficiency in Europe.Financial support has positive significance for the technological progress of Asian and European countries, and it also promotes the pure technical efficiency of Europe.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F113

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