劳动力回流与工业经济省际趋同机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 01:32

本文选题：劳动力回流 + 经济趋同　；参考：《经济问题探索》2017年11期

【摘要】：针对我国新时期省际经济严重分化的现状,本文运用面板固定效应模型、面板分位数模型从劳动力回流机制、回流框架下的资本要素投入机制、总产出与人均产出维度下的经济趋同机制三个方面分时段、分区域探究了工业劳动力回流能否推动工业经济省际趋同与工业劳动力回流对经济省际趋同的作用机制。实证结果表明,劳动力回流显著加速了资本要素投入。相对于流出省份,资本要素更倾向于投入回流省份。相较于流出省份总产出、人均产出增速显著放缓、甚至总量萎缩,劳动力回流及其改变的资本要素投入显著扭转了工业总产出与人均产出的下滑趋势。虽然存在要素边际产出递减,但劳动力回流在一定程度上避免了产出弹性的显著下滑。如果劳动力回流规模足够充裕,省际经济规模必将显著扩大。劳动力回流改变的资本、劳动要素供给与配置最终推动了工业经济省际趋同。
[Abstract]:In view of the present situation of the serious economic differentiation between provinces in the new period, this paper applies the panel fixed effect model, the panel quantile model from the labor force reflux mechanism, the capital factor input mechanism under the backflow frame.In this paper, the mechanism of economic convergence under the dimension of total output and per capita output is divided into three parts, and the mechanism of whether the return of industrial labor force can promote the inter-provincial convergence of industrial economy and the mechanism of industrial labor reflux to economic convergence between provinces is explored in different regions.The empirical results show that the return of labor force accelerates the capital factor investment significantly.Capital factors tend to flow back into provinces rather than out provinces.Compared with the total output of the outflow provinces, the growth rate of per capita output slowed significantly, or even the total output shrank, and the labor reflux and its changing capital factor investment significantly reversed the decline of the total industrial output and the per capita output.Although there is a decline in marginal output of elements, labor reflux to some extent avoids a significant decline in output elasticity.If labor reflux scale is abundant enough, the scale of interprovincial economy is bound to expand significantly.The capital, labor factor supply and distribution of labor reflux finally promote the convergence of industrial economy.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新常态下中国制造业投资与产能的配置机制与政策选择”(15JJD790010),项目负责人:孙巍
【分类号】：F249.27;F427

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