房地产对经济增长的短期与长期影响

发布时间：2018-04-22 01:06

本文选题：房地产 + 实体经济　；参考：《中国高校社会科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：房地产对经济增长的短期影响与长期影响截然不同。短期内,房地产能够通过拉动房地产本身及其相关产业的投资,并且为地方政府筹集资金,较为显著地拉动经济增长。但是,长期依赖房地产拉动增长将会弱化经济增长的动力源泉:一是对制造业等生产性投资产生挤出效应,不利于生产性资本积累;二是弱化实体部门企业和青年科研人员的创新动力,不利于技术进步;三是引发房地产部门与实体部门以及同房地产相关的落后产业与新兴产业之间的资源错配,不利于效率改进;四是引发房价泡沫而且一旦泡沫破裂将对资本积累产生严重冲击。有鉴于此,中国应该让房地产回归居住属性。
[Abstract]:The short-term impact of real estate on economic growth and long-term effects are very different. In the short term, real estate can stimulate the investment of real estate itself and related industries, and raise funds for local governments, which can significantly stimulate economic growth. However, relying on real estate for a long time will weaken the power source of economic growth: first, the extrusion effect of productive investment, such as manufacturing, is not conducive to the accumulation of productive capital; Second, weakening the innovation power of enterprises and young researchers in the real estate sector, which is not conducive to technological progress; third, causing the mismatch of resources between the real estate sector and the real estate sector, and between the backward and emerging industries related to real estate. Fourth, house price bubble and if the bubble burst will have a serious impact on capital accumulation. In view of this, China should let real estate return to residential properties.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“利率市场化背景下中国货币政策框架的转型研究”(15XNI006)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F124.1;F299.23

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