晋城市城镇化政策经长对济增影响的计量分析

发布时间：2018-04-27 11:11

本文选题：城镇化 + 经济增长　；参考：《山西师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：关于城镇化与经济增长关系的研究由来已久,无论是对于学术界还是政策界,都一直是其研究的热点。特别是近几年,中央对于城镇化的发展越来越重视,“城镇化”一词频频出现在各种文件和报告中,李克强总理2012年不止一次阐释了发展“城镇化”能够有效释放内需以及拉动经济增长的机理,重点强调了“城镇化”发展对将来的经济增长将起到不可估量的作用,未来的经济增长与城镇化进程息息相关。同年十八大报告中明确指出城镇化对经济结构战略性调整的推进以及加快经济发展方式的转变有着绝对的重要性。在这样的大背景下,处于转型发展关键期的煤炭城市晋城市不仅要保证转型工作的顺利推进,更要确保晋城市城镇化的可持续发展,特别是自2012年山西省煤炭行业告别“黄金十年”之后,煤炭城市失去了资源优势,经济增速逐年放缓,晋城市城镇化的可持续发展对于晋城市的经济转型发展和社会进步愈发重要。对晋城市城镇化政策的分析和晋城市城镇化与经济增长关系的计量分析,对于今后晋城市城镇化的推进和经济的可持续增长都有着十分重要的意义。本文在对城镇化与经济增长及其二者关系的已有研究成果进行梳理的基础上,对晋城市城镇化发展状况和历年促进城镇化的主要政策及其实施效果进行分析,然后运用Eviews6.0对晋城市人口城镇化率和人均地区实际生产总值两个时间序列进行计量分析,通过协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析等,计量结果表明城镇化与经济增长二者之间确实存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,但是二者并不是完全实现正相关关系,经济增长有效推动了城镇化的发展,但城镇化对经济增长的拉动作用不那么明显;最后结合晋城市的具体发展现状和已有政策,对实证结论进行分析后,针对城镇化无法有效拉动经济增长提出了推进转型期城镇化和经济增长可持续发展的政策建议:一方面,城镇化方面要做大做强中心城区,提升城市的吸引力,更好的发挥对周边地区的辐射作用,并注重城镇化发展质量的提高,助力转型,而不是一味追求城镇化率的提高;另一方面,继续推进转型工作,经济方面经济要向多元化发展,虽然需要转型,但是还是要结合当地的资源优势,煤炭行业的发展方式要有所转变,向精细化和集群化发展,同时充分利用当地的旅游资源,大力发展旅游文化产业,进行区域性建设,以及从当地的地理位置出发,要大力发展当地的交通网络建设。
[Abstract]:The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been studied for a long time. In particular, in recent years, the central authorities have paid more and more attention to the development of urbanization, and the term "urbanization" has frequently appeared in various documents and reports. Premier Li Keqiang explained on more than one occasion in 2012 the mechanism by which the development of "urbanization" can effectively release domestic demand and stimulate economic growth, emphasizing that the development of "urbanization" will play an inestimable role in future economic growth. The future economic growth and urbanization process are closely linked. In the report of the 18th National Congress of the same year, it is pointed out that urbanization is of absolute importance to the promotion of strategic adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of the mode of economic development. Against this background, the coal city of Jincheng, which is in a critical period of transition and development, should not only ensure the smooth progress of the transformation work, but also ensure the sustainable development of urbanization in Jincheng. In particular, since the coal industry of Shanxi Province said goodbye to the "golden decade" in 2012, coal cities have lost their resource advantages and the economic growth rate has slowed year by year. The sustainable development of urbanization in Jincheng is more and more important for the economic transformation and social progress of Jincheng. The analysis of urbanization policy and the econometric analysis of the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Jincheng City are of great significance for the promotion of urbanization and sustainable economic growth in Jincheng City in the future. On the basis of combing the existing research results of urbanization and economic growth and their relationship, this paper analyzes the development of urbanization in Jincheng city, the main policies to promote urbanization over the years and its implementation effect. Then using Eviews6.0 to analyze the urbanization rate and real GDP of Jincheng city, through cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, etc. The econometric results show that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and economic growth, but the two are not completely positive correlation, economic growth has effectively promoted the development of urbanization. However, the pulling effect of urbanization on economic growth is not so obvious. Finally, combined with the specific development situation and existing policies of Jincheng, the empirical conclusions are analyzed. In view of the fact that urbanization can not effectively stimulate economic growth, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for promoting urbanization and sustainable development of economic growth in the transitional period: on the one hand, urbanization should be bigger and stronger in central urban areas to enhance the attractiveness of cities. Better play the role of radiation to the surrounding areas, and pay attention to improving the quality of urbanization development, helping the transformation, rather than blindly pursuing the improvement of the urbanization rate; on the other hand, continue to promote the transformation work. In terms of economic development, the economy needs to be diversified, although it needs to be transformed, but it still needs to combine the advantages of local resources, and the mode of development of the coal industry should be changed to a degree of refinement and cluster development, while at the same time making full use of the local tourism resources, It is necessary to vigorously develop tourism cultural industry, regional construction, and local transportation network construction based on local geographical location.
【学位授予单位】：山西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F127

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