中部地区城商行的全要素生产率测度及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-28 00:30

本文选题：城商行 + GML指数　；参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,中国经济进入转型期,经济增速大为下降,国内商业银行的不良贷款数量和不良贷款率连续四年上升。中部地区的城商行与过去相比取得了不错的成绩,但是与其它类型的商业银行相比不管是在资产总量还是在人力资源等方面都存在较大的差距。中部地区城商行如何与国有商业银行、股份制商业银行、东部地区跨区经营的城商行竞争是一个值得探讨的问题。本文在中部地区20家城商行中选择了12家城商行作为样本进行研究。考虑到数据的可获性,本文选取了12家城商行2011-2015年之间的相关数据,通过构建具有传递性和完全可解性的DEA全域Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数对样本城商行的全要素生产率进行测度。发现在不考虑不良贷款的情况下,城商行的全要素生产率几乎没有变化,其年均下降了0.009%;而在考虑不良贷款作为产出的条件下城商行的全要素生产率年均下降了2.07%,这说明不考虑不良贷款确实会对城商行的全要素生产率形成高估。而另一个发现是在研究期间,国有控股城商行的全要素生产率年均增加了0.57%,民营控股城商行的全要素生产率年均大幅下降了6.08%。但是国有控股城商行的全要素生产率的水平仍低于民营控股城商行,且存在一定的差距。在城商行全要素生产率测度结果的基础上,再构建面板数据模型对中部地区城商行全要素生产率的影响因素进行实证分析。结果发现不良贷款率、资产费用率和当地固定资产投资增长率对城商行的全要素生产率有显著负面影响,估计系数分别为-11.26、-13.34和-0.573。这说明通过降低不良贷款率和资产费用率可以有效提高城商行的全要素生产率。当地GDP增长率、存贷比、市场份额和国有股权占比的估计系数都没有通过显著性检验。这说明GDP增长率、存贷比、市场份额和国有股权占比与城商行的全要素生产率不存在显著的线性关系。民营控股城商行的全要素生产率水平始终高于国有控股城商行的全要素生产率,说明把中部地区城商行的国有股份控制在50%以下有利于全要素生产率的提高。自有资本比率与城商行的全要素生产率存在显著的正相关关系,而估计系数达到了73.67。这主要是在测度城商行的全要素生产率过程中没有考虑到自有资本的机会成本造成的。这对以后的城商行全要素生产率测度相关研究也是一个有意义的提醒,即忽略城商行自有资本的投入会对全要素生产率的测度造成一定影响。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economy has entered a transitional period, the economic growth rate has been greatly reduced, and the number of non-performing loans and the non-performing loan rate of domestic commercial banks have increased for four consecutive years. City commercial banks in the central region have achieved good results compared with the past, but compared with other types of commercial banks, there is a big gap in terms of total assets and human resources. How to compete with state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks and inter-regional commercial banks in eastern China is a problem worth discussing. In this paper, we selected 12 commercial banks in 20 cities in the central region as the sample. Considering the availability of data, this paper selects the relevant data from 2011-2015 of 12 city commercial banks, and measures the total factor productivity of the sample city firms by constructing the DEA global Malmquist-Luenberger DEA index with transitivity and solvability. Found that without taking into account non-performing loans, the total factor productivity of City Merchants has hardly changed. The average annual decline of TFP is 0.009%, and the average TFP of CCB is 2.07% on the condition that non-performing loans are considered as output, which indicates that not considering non-performing loans will overestimate TFP. The other finding is that during the study period, the total factor productivity of state-owned holding city commercial banks increased 0.57% per year, and the total factor productivity of private holding city commercial banks decreased by 6.08% a year. However, the level of total factor productivity of state-owned holding city commercial banks is still lower than that of private holding city commercial banks, and there is a certain gap. Based on the measurement results of total factor productivity (TFP) of CityBank, a panel data model is constructed to analyze the influencing factors of TFP in central China. The results show that the rate of non-performing loan, the rate of asset expense and the growth rate of local fixed asset investment have significant negative effects on the total factor productivity of city commercial banks, with estimated coefficients of -11.26 ~ 13.34 and -0.573, respectively. This indicates that the total factor productivity can be improved effectively by reducing the non-performing loan ratio and the capital expense rate. The estimated coefficients of local GDP growth rate, deposit / loan ratio, market share and state equity share have not passed the significance test. This shows that there is no significant linear relationship between the growth rate of GDP, the ratio of deposit to loan, the market share and the proportion of state-owned equity with TFP. The level of total factor productivity of the private holding city commercial bank is always higher than that of the state-owned holding city commercial bank, which indicates that controlling the state-owned shares of the central city commercial bank below 50% is conducive to the improvement of the total factor productivity. There is a significant positive correlation between the ratio of its own capital and the total factor productivity of the commercial banks, and the estimated coefficient is 73.67. This is mainly caused by the fact that the opportunity cost of own capital is not taken into account in the process of measuring the total factor productivity of city firms. This is also a meaningful reminder to the future research on the measurement of total factor productivity of city commercial banks, that is, ignoring the investment of private capital of city commercial banks will have a certain impact on the measurement of total factor productivity.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F832.33

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