广西城镇化进程中的泡沫问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 16:42

本文选题：城镇化 + 泡沫　；参考：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着新时期城镇化的推进,我国城市发展已经取得了举世瞩目的成就。它不仅为我国经济增长和社会发展提供强大的引擎,还是解决城乡矛盾的重要途径。虽然广西壮族自治区秉持高速发展的势头,然而现行的城镇化发展模式已经表露出众多的问题,寻找新的发展方式,必须着眼于人口、经济、空间、公共服务、生态环境等方面,对城镇化可能产生的问题进行系统性和科学性的分析。本文基于“泡沫的视角”,通过比较金融市场泡沫和房地产泡沫的一般规律,借助于前人的相关理论总结,结合广西壮族自治区城镇化发展的现状以及可能产生泡沫的原因,尝试从城镇化泡沫的角度对城镇化进程中的问题进行描述和测度,并且通过自治区城市的比较和全国水平的差异性,提出具体的对策。本文采用了实证分析的方法,首先解释了选取指标的意义,然后运用熵值法确定了公共服务水平和生态环境水平,最后通过四象限分析法从人口城镇化、空间城镇化、经济城镇化、公共服务城镇化、生态环境城镇化五个方面对广西壮族自治区2005-2015年的泡沫现象进行了测度研究。研究结果表明:城镇化泡沫的产生可能存在三种情况(1)城镇化各指标层的发展速度不及常住人口城镇化的变化速度(2)由于历史因素或未把握发展机遇造成经济基础水平滞后,同时缺乏产业间的良性互动,导致基础薄弱,发展先天性缓慢。(3)城镇化的某些领域的建设和推进存在退步的现象,产生了负向的城镇化泡沫。同时本文为解释说明广西城镇化泡沫的特性,通过自治区内部城市之间的横向比较和全国水平的纵向比较分析得出了以下结论:(1)广西壮族自治区大部分城市或多或少的存在不同程度的城镇化泡沫现象,人口城镇化泡沫最轻,经济城镇化泡沫最为严重,空间城镇化泡沫、公共服务城镇化泡沫以及生态环境城镇化泡沫凸显。(2)较之落后的桂西资源富集区,城镇化泡沫现象严重,自治区经济强市在人口、空间、经济城镇化泡沫方面不明显而在公共服务和生态环境泡沫方面显著,旅游城市总体上的城镇化泡沫不显著。(3)同全国比较,广西人口城镇化泡沫较为轻微,公共服务城镇化泡沫程度较大,空间城镇化泡沫同全国发展趋势基本一致,经济城镇化泡沫和环境城镇化泡沫同全国差异显著。综合理论分析与实证结果,本文对抑制广西城镇化泡沫提出了相应的以下几点对策:(1)坚持以人为本,提升人口质量。(2)调整好城镇和农村的关系。(3)结合区域特色进行产业整合。(4)贯彻科学工业发展政策,走新型城镇化道路。
[Abstract]:With the advance of urbanization in the new period, China's urban development has made remarkable achievements. It not only provides a powerful engine for China's economic growth and social development, but also an important way to solve the contradiction between urban and rural areas. Although Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region has maintained the momentum of rapid development, however, the current urbanization development model has revealed many problems. In order to find a new way of development, we must focus on population, economy, space, and public services. Ecological environment and other aspects, the possible problems arising from urbanization are systematically and scientifically analyzed. Based on the "bubble perspective", by comparing the general laws of financial market bubble and real estate bubble, with the help of previous relevant theories, this paper combines the present situation of urbanization development in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region and the possible causes of bubble. This paper attempts to describe and measure the problems in the process of urbanization from the angle of urbanization bubble, and puts forward concrete countermeasures through the comparison of autonomous region cities and the difference of national level. This paper uses the method of empirical analysis, first explains the significance of selecting indicators, then determines the level of public service and ecological environment by using entropy method, and finally, through the four-quadrant analysis, analyzes the urbanization of population and the urbanization of space. The bubble phenomenon of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region from 2005 to 2015 was measured and studied in five aspects: economic urbanization, urbanization of public services and urbanization of ecological environment. The results show that: there may be three conditions for the emergence of urbanization bubble. 1) the development speed of each index layer of urbanization is not as fast as that of resident population. 2) the economic base level lags behind due to historical factors or lack of grasp of development opportunity. At the same time, the lack of benign interaction between industries leads to weak foundation, the development of congenital slow. 3) urbanization in some areas of the construction and promotion of the phenomenon of retrogression, resulting in a negative urbanization bubble. At the same time, in order to explain the characteristics of urbanization bubble in Guangxi, Through the horizontal comparison of cities within the autonomous region and the longitudinal comparative analysis of the national level, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) most cities in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region have more or less different degrees of urbanization bubble phenomenon. Population urbanization bubble is the lightest, economic urbanization bubble is the most serious, spatial urbanization bubble, public service urbanization bubble and ecological environment urbanization bubble highlight. The population, space and economic urbanization bubble is not obvious in the strong cities of the autonomous region, but it is significant in the areas of public services and ecological environment, while the urbanization bubble in the tourist cities as a whole is not significant compared with the whole country. Guangxi's population urbanization bubble is relatively slight, the public service urbanization bubble degree is bigger, the spatial urbanization bubble is basically consistent with the national development trend, and the economic urbanization bubble and the environmental urbanization bubble are obviously different from the whole country. Synthesizing the theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward the following corresponding countermeasures to suppress the urbanization bubble in Guangxi: 1) adhere to the people-oriented approach. Improve the quality of population. 2) adjust the relationship between town and countryside. 3) combine the regional characteristics to carry out the industrial integration. 4) carry out the scientific industrial development policy and take the new way of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27

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