我国房地产上市公司偿债能力的研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 08:01

本文选题：房地产 + 偿债能力　；参考：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产是一种同时具备消费品与投资品属性的商品,地产业如果投资过热,房价不断攀升容易产生经济泡沫,进而引发经济危机；如果投资萧条,则不利于解决社会就业,维持社会稳定,带动经济发展。正因为如此,我国要对房地产业的发展保持较高的关注度,充分运用宏观调控政策,以此推动房地产业的发展。值得指出的是,我国房地产企业的运作十分依赖于负债资金。统计2015年A股上市公司各个行业(按证监会的行业分类)的资产负债表,发现房地产行业的资产负债率高达77%,仅低于建筑业与金融业；流动资产占比86%,高居行业第一。本文最终选定极具典型意义的上市房地产公司为研究对象,这一类型的企业在行业内处于领先位置,可将该行业的普遍性与基本特征全面地体现出来,同时也能相当精准地呈现出广泛地存在于行业内部的问题。本文从理论上阐述了企业偿债能力的影响因素,并从多个方面研究了房地产企业独有的财务特点和经营现状。然后,采取实证手段确定上市房地产偿债能力指标,依托此模型针对债务结构给偿债能力形成的影响进行检验。在剖析房地产的经营现状时,本文指出房地产行业的财务特点,包括资金驱动型、融资需求大,项目周转长导致利润表不同步、现金流波动大、行业周期性强、盈利能力波动大等。在实证分析过程中,本文在沪深两地上市的120家房地产公司里,剔除财务数据异常和缺失的6家后,选择其中的114家作为研究样本。根据其2009-2015年的相关财务数据,采取因子分析的策略在全方位地结合现金获取能力指标、盈利能力指标、发展能力指标、偿债能力指标等十三项指标的基础上,构建出企业的偿债能力综合评价模型。随后,利用定义的偿债能力指数作为体现企业偿债能力的因变量,将债务的来源结构作为分析债务结构的切入点,并选择银行借款率、长期负债率、商业信用率和短期负债率四个指标作为自变量,最终找出债务来源的不同如何影响到企业的偿债能力。研究结论表明,我国上市房地产企业平均偿债能力指数表现为震荡向下,行业整体处于长期下行阶段；房地产的偿债能力周期和房地产调控周期并不同步,但与房地产企业的业绩周期基本一致；房地产企业规模效应的价值非常突出,在未来人口红利消失、城镇化走过高增长的行业下行时代,龙头和中小地产商在偿债能力上的差别将越发得到体现,行业可能面临强者恒强的分化趋势。在针对债务结构给偿债能力形成的影响的实证分析验证过程中,研究发现,地产企业偿债能力会受到长期负债率带来的严重影响,而商业信用率、短期负债率以及银行借款率的回归系数尽管为负数,但是其影响并不明显。其中短期负债率、商业信用率主要是因为以经营性负债为主,不带息、不增加公司的偿债压力；而银行借款率可能是未考虑近年发展迅猛的企业债以及新型的债券类融资工具,值得进一步挖掘。
[Abstract]:Real estate is a commodity with the properties of consumer goods and investment goods at the same time. If the investment is overheated in the land industry, the rising price of house prices will lead to economic bubble, which will lead to economic crisis. If the investment is depressed, it is not conducive to solving social employment, maintaining social stability and promoting economic development. In order to promote the development of real estate industry, it is worth pointing out that the operation of real estate enterprises in China depends on the debt fund. The balance sheet of the A shares of the listed companies in 2015 (according to the industry classification of the SFC) has been found to find the asset liability ratio of the real estate industry. Up to 77%, only below the construction industry and the financial industry; the mobile assets account for 86% and the industry first. This article finally chooses the most typical listed Real Estate Company as the research object. This type of enterprise is in the leading position in the industry, which can fully reflect the industry's universality and basic characteristics, and can also be quite precise. This paper presents the problems that exist widely in the industry. This paper expounds the influencing factors of the solvency of the enterprises in theory, and studies the unique financial characteristics and management status of the real estate enterprises from many aspects. Then, we take an empirical method to determine the index of the solvency of the listed real estate, and rely on this model to compensate for the debt structure. When analyzing the current situation of the real estate, this paper points out the financial characteristics of the real estate industry, including capital driven, large financing demand, unsynchronized profit statement, large cash flow fluctuation, strong cyclical industry, and great fluctuation in profitability. This paper is in Shanghai and Shenzhen in the empirical analysis process. In the 120 Real Estate Company listed on the two sides, 114 of them were selected as research samples after eliminating 6 financial data anomalies and missing families. According to their 2009-2015 year related financial data, the strategy of factor analysis was integrated with the index of cash acquisition capability, profitability index, development capability index, debt service index and so on. On the basis of the thirteen indicators, a comprehensive evaluation model of the solvency of the enterprise is built. Then, the definition of debt Solvency Index is used as the dependent variable to reflect the solvency of the enterprise, and the source structure of the debt is used as the breakthrough point to analyze the debt structure, and the bank loan rate, the long-term debt rate, the commercial credit rate and the short-term debt rate are four. The results show that the average debt Solvency Index of the listed real estate enterprises in China is oscillating downward and the industry is in a long-term downward stage; the debt repayment energy cycle of real estate is not synchronized with the real estate regulation cycle. The performance cycle of real estate enterprises is basically consistent; the value of the size effect of real estate enterprises is very prominent. In the future, the demographic dividend disappears, the urbanization has gone through the high growth period of the industry, the difference between the leading and the small and medium-sized real estate businessmen will be more and more manifested, the industry may face the tendency of the strong strong of the strong. In the process of empirical analysis, the study found that the solvency of the real estate companies will be seriously affected by the long-term debt rate, while the commercial credit rate, the short-term debt rate and the regression coefficient of the bank loan rate are negative, but the short-term debt rate, business letter, is not obvious. The rate of use is mainly due to operating liability, without interest, and no increase in the company's debt service pressure; and the bank borrowing rate may be a new debt financing tool that is not considered rapid in recent years and a new bond financing tool. It is worth further digging.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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