我国房地产泡沫及其防范研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 20:17

本文选题：房地产泡沫 + 指标法　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自我国实施住房制度改革以来,市场中被压抑多年的住房需求逐步被释放,中国城市住宅进入商品房时代。随着经济的不断增长、城市化进程的不断加速和城市房地产业投资的增加,房地产业得到了大力的发展,也逐渐成为我国国民经济的重要支柱。人们的居住条件在不断改善,房地产业的发展不但促进了经济的增长,也为解决民生问题提供了有力的支持。但是,在房地产业高速发展的同时,市场投机现象越来越严重,大量资金集中投向房地产业,购房者投机需求旺盛,开发商囤地,一线城市和部分二线城市房价上涨过快等等。这些问题的发生引起了社会高度的重视,国家也在不断出台调控房地产市场的政策,希望能够解决这些问题,使得房地产市场的发展是持续健康的。在房地产业高速发展的背后,我国房地产市场是否存在泡沫成为了社会舆论的焦点。事实上,世界上历次房地产泡沫事件带来的后果都是非常严重的,比如,美国佛罗里达州的房地产泡沫最终引发了20世纪30年代全球经济的大萧条。因此,研究我国房地产市场是否存在泡沫以及如何有效防范房地产泡沫风险具有重大的意义。首先,本文回顾了国际上发生的美国、日本和爱尔兰的房地产泡沫事件,从中获取了一些启示,发现政府、银行和投机行为对房地产泡沫具有重要的推动作用。然后,笔者对泡沫、房地产泡沫、泡沫经济和经济泡沫的含义进行了阐述,还对房地产泡沫的形成机理和影响进行了详细的分析,认为房地产价格、金融的支持、政府过度依赖“土地财政”和租购选择机制的缺失与房地产泡沫的生成存在一定的关系,并且分析了房地产泡沫带来的负面影响,比如,导致社会资源配置失衡、威胁金融安全、影响宏观经济系统的运行、对社会心理和大众行为造成负面影响。在对我国房地产泡沫测度之前,笔者先对房地产市场现状进行了分析,主要是分析了商品房的售价和房地产投资情况,总体来看我国的房价几乎每年都在增长,相对于人们的收入水平,房价是偏高的。房地产投资额每年也在不断增加,占GDP的比重也越来越大,从2009年以后,均保持在10%以上,对我国国民经济的发展具有很大的贡献。对于我国房地产泡沫的测度,笔者通过选取的不同指标分析我国房地产泡沫情况,并且采取因子分析法赋予各指标权重,从而构建综合指数对我国房地产泡沫进行测度,研究表明房地产泡沫是存在的。最后,笔者基于对房地泡沫的分析,以不同的视角为出发点提出了防范房地产泡沫的对策。这些对策具体而又细化,一是严控土地和资本无序涌入房地产市场,二是完善房地产产品结构和市场结构,三是规范和完善政府行为。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of housing system reform in China, the demand for housing which has been suppressed for many years in the market has been gradually released, and Chinese urban housing has entered the age of commercial housing. With the continuous growth of economy, the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of investment in urban real estate, real estate industry has been vigorously developed, and has gradually become an important pillar of our national economy. People's living conditions are improving constantly. The development of real estate not only promotes economic growth, but also provides powerful support for solving livelihood problems. However, with the rapid development of real estate industry, the phenomenon of market speculation is becoming more and more serious. A large number of funds are concentrated on the real estate industry, property buyers have strong speculative demand, developers are hoarding land, housing prices in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities are rising too fast, and so on. The occurrence of these problems has caused a high degree of social attention, the country is also constantly introducing policies to regulate the real estate market, hoping to solve these problems, so that the development of the real estate market is sustainable and healthy. Behind the rapid development of the real estate industry, whether there is a bubble in the real estate market in China has become the focus of public opinion. In fact, the consequences of every real estate bubble in the world are very serious. For example, the real estate bubble in Florida led to the Great Depression of the global economy in the 1930s. Therefore, it is of great significance to study whether there is a bubble in China's real estate market and how to effectively prevent the risk of real estate bubble. Firstly, this paper reviews the real estate bubble events in the United States, Japan and Ireland, and finds that the government, banks and speculation play an important role in promoting the real estate bubble. Then, the author expounds the meaning of bubble, real estate bubble, bubble economy and economic bubble, and analyzes the formation mechanism and influence of real estate bubble in detail. The lack of government's excessive reliance on "land finance" and the mechanism of rent-purchase choice has certain relationship with the formation of real estate bubble, and analyzes the negative effects of the real estate bubble, such as, causing the imbalance of social resource allocation. Threatening financial security, affecting the operation of macroeconomic system, social psychology and public behavior have a negative impact. Before measuring the real estate bubble in China, the author analyzes the present situation of the real estate market, mainly analyzes the selling price and the real estate investment of the commercial housing. In general, the house prices in our country are increasing almost every year. Relative to people's income level, house prices are on the high side. The investment of real estate is increasing every year, and the proportion of real estate investment in GDP is more and more. Since 2009, it has been kept above 10%, which has made a great contribution to the development of our national economy. For the measurement of real estate bubble in China, the author analyzes the situation of real estate bubble in our country by selecting different indexes, and adopts factor analysis method to give each index weight, so as to construct a comprehensive index to measure the real estate bubble in China. Research shows that real estate bubbles exist. Finally, based on the analysis of the real estate bubble, the author puts forward the countermeasures to prevent the real estate bubble from different perspectives. These countermeasures are specific and detailed, one is to strictly control the disorder of land and capital into the real estate market, the other is to perfect the structure of real estate products and market, and the third is to standardize and perfect the government behavior.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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