中国城镇化质量的评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 16:49

本文选题：城镇化质量 + 规模经济　；参考：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国目前进入了高速发展之后缓慢而平稳的休整过度期,即我们所说的新常态,这个时期必须要开发经济增长潜力、促进经济结构调整、转变经济发展方式。城镇化是伴随着经济发展与工业化的产物,反过来,城镇化也是未来推动我国经济结构调整的重要手段,提高城镇化质量将成为经济向有效率的增长方式转变的重要途径。从工业化阶段来看,目前中国已经整体进入工业化后期阶段,今后发展的重点是提升工业化质量,推进产业高级化;从城镇化阶段来看,我国进入了城镇化中期快速推进的减速阶段,应该将发展城镇化质量、建设新型城镇化作为未来的战略选择。本文在总结前人研究结果的基础上,先对城镇化质量的内涵做了科学分析和界定,并以此为依据描述城镇化质量提高的动力机制、建立评价城镇化质量的维度指标。其次,从城镇化规模、城镇化推进效率和城乡一体化结构等维度,采用熵值法实证评价2002-2015年份中国31个省份(不包括港澳台)城镇化质量发展情况,并利用耦合协调度理论模型分析各个省份历年城镇化水平-质量协调度变化趋势,从具有经济相关或者空间区域关联的城市群角度研究时间序列的城镇化质量和城镇化水平-质量协调度,分析各地区城镇化质量和城镇化水平-质量出现差异的原因。再次,从城镇化规模、城镇化推进效率和城乡一体化结构等三个方面分析制约我国城镇化质量提高的影响因素,认为人口红利消退、资本市场投资需求增长趋势放缓和集聚外部不经济制约了城镇化规模经济发挥作用,产业结构低端化、技术创新缺失影响下的要素生产率低下和要素分割市场严重、市场机制不完善影响下的要素配置效率不高共同制约了城镇化推进效率的提升,城乡要素结构、产品结构、公共服务结构等供给结构的失衡,和收入分配结构、消费结构等需求结构的失衡共同构成了城乡二元结构失衡。最后,从开发规模经济潜力、从低效走向高效、从区域分割走向一体化等方面来构建提高中国城镇化质量的路径选择。
[Abstract]:At present, China has entered a period of slow and steady recuperation after rapid development, that is, the new normal. In this period, we must exploit the potential of economic growth, promote the adjustment of economic structure, and change the mode of economic development. Urbanization is the result of economic development and industrialization. In turn, urbanization is also an important means to promote the adjustment of economic structure in the future. Improving the quality of urbanization will become an important way to transform the economy into an efficient growth mode. Judging from the stage of industrialization, at present China has entered the later stage of industrialization as a whole. In the future, the focus of development is to improve the quality of industrialization and promote the upgrading of industries. From the perspective of the stage of urbanization, China has entered the deceleration stage of rapid progress of urbanization in the middle period, and should take the development of urbanization quality and the construction of new urbanization as the strategic choice in the future. On the basis of summing up the previous research results, this paper first makes a scientific analysis and definition of the connotation of urbanization quality, and based on it describes the motive mechanism of urbanization quality improvement, and establishes a dimension index to evaluate urbanization quality. Secondly, from the dimensions of urbanization scale, urbanization efficiency and urban-rural integration structure, the paper empirically evaluates the development of urbanization quality in 31 provinces of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in 2002-2015 by using entropy method. By using the coupling coordination degree theory model, the change trend of urbanization level and quality coordination degree in each province over the years is analyzed. In this paper, the urbanization quality and urbanization level-quality coordination degree of time series are studied from the angle of urban agglomeration with economic correlation or spatial regional association, and the reasons for the differences between urbanization quality and urbanization level-quality in different regions are analyzed. Thirdly, from three aspects of urbanization scale, urbanization promotion efficiency and urban-rural integration structure, the paper analyzes the influencing factors that restrict the improvement of urbanization quality in China, and thinks that the population dividend is fading. The slow growth trend of capital market investment demand and the agglomeration of external diseconomies restrict the role of urbanization economies of scale, the low industrial structure, the low factor productivity under the influence of lack of technological innovation, and the serious market segmentation of factors. The inefficient allocation of factors under the influence of imperfect market mechanism restricts the promotion of urbanization, the imbalance of supply structure, such as the structure of urban and rural elements, the structure of products, the structure of public service, and the structure of income distribution. The imbalance of demand structure, such as consumption structure, constitutes the imbalance of urban and rural dual structure. Finally, from the aspects of developing the potential of scale economy, from low efficiency to high efficiency, from regional division to integration, we construct the path choice to improve the quality of urbanization in China.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21

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