PH房地产公司财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 00:41

本文选题：房地产企业 + 财务风险　；参考：《沈阳工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在我国国民经济不断壮大和全国居民平均消费水平不断提高的大背景下,我国城镇居民对商品房的需求量也在逐年上涨,这一现象直接推动房地产行业逐渐转变发展成我国国民经济的支柱型产业。再加之房地产业具有带动系数较大、产业自身关联性强等特点,促使其时刻影响着我国社会经济活动的发展状态。因为房地产行业具有投资成本高、经营风险较大、区域性较强、经济周期长等特点,所以房地产企业面临的财务风险相对较高。而房地产企业通常面临的财务风险往往又伴随着宏观经济市场中不确定因素的增加而增加,尤其是资金链断裂、通货膨胀、利率浮动以及资产负债率偏高等财务风险。通常可以通过量化的财务指标对企业财务风险进行跟踪评价,但因为这种往往方法忽视了非财务因素对房地产企业的重大影响,所以不能全面的预测评价企业所面临的风险。对于房地产行业来说,有时结合运用某些非财务指标对企业的财务风险进行评价会更有效、更全面。例如在考虑国内外经济形势、金融政策以及政策调控的基础上结合财务指标对企业财务风险进行评价会更可靠、更准确。因此本文研究的核心内容就是在量化、考核和分析财务指标的基础上引入非财务指标,建立具有房地产企业特点的、评价精度极高的、综合性动态财务风险预警系统。本文首先阐述财务风险和财务风险预警的相关理论,然后以PH房地产公司为研究对象,并对其公司的财务现状及现阶段所处内外部环境进行分析,初步识别其所具有的显著财务风险。然后选取符合PH房地产公司特点的财务指标和非财务指标,从而构成PH房地产公司财务风险预警指标体系,并运用层次分析法对指标赋予权重。最后,以模糊综合评价法为基础构建PH公司财务风险预警模型,并对模型进行了检验,符合该公司的实际情况。通过运用构建好的模型预测PH房地产公司2016年的财务状况,结果显示公司财务风险已处于中警状态,随之结合PH房地产现阶段的具体状况提出了相应的财务风险管控及防范措施。以期此次对PH房地产公司的具体研究能够对我国尚且处于发展阶段的房地产公司在财务风险预警及防范上提供些许参考。
[Abstract]:Against the background of the continuous expansion of the national economy and the continuous improvement of the average consumption level of the country's residents, the demand for commercial housing by urban residents in our country is also rising year by year. This phenomenon directly promotes the real estate industry to gradually transform into the pillar industry of our national economy. In addition, the real estate industry has the characteristics of large driving coefficient and strong correlation of industry itself, which impels it to affect the development state of our country's social and economic activities at all times. Because the real estate industry has the characteristics of high investment cost, large operating risk, strong regional, long economic cycle, so the financial risk faced by real estate enterprises is relatively high. However, the financial risks usually faced by real estate enterprises are often increased with the increase of uncertain factors in the macroeconomic market, especially the financial risks such as the breakage of capital chain, inflation, floating interest rate and high ratio of assets and liabilities. It is usually possible to track and evaluate the financial risk of enterprises through quantitative financial indicators, but because this method often ignores the significant impact of non-financial factors on real estate enterprises, it can not comprehensively predict and evaluate the risks faced by enterprises. For real estate industry, it is more effective and more comprehensive to use some non-financial indicators to evaluate the financial risk of an enterprise. For example, it is more reliable and accurate to evaluate the financial risk of an enterprise on the basis of considering the domestic and foreign economic situation, financial policy and policy regulation. Therefore, the core content of this paper is to introduce non-financial indicators on the basis of quantification, assessment and analysis of financial indicators, and to establish a comprehensive dynamic financial risk early warning system with high evaluation accuracy and characteristics of real estate enterprises. This paper first expounds the relevant theories of financial risk and financial risk warning, then takes PH real estate company as the research object, and analyzes the present financial situation and the internal and external environment of the company. Initially identify its significant financial risks. Then select the financial index and non-financial index which accord with the characteristics of PH real estate company, thus constitute the financial risk early warning index system of PH real estate company, and use AHP to give weight to the index. Finally, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the financial risk early-warning model of PH company is constructed, and the model is tested, which is in line with the actual situation of the company. By using the established model to predict the financial situation of PH real estate company in 2016, the results show that the financial risk of the company is in the state of middle police. Then combined with PH real estate at this stage of the specific situation put forward the corresponding financial risk control and prevention measures. Hope this specific study on PH real estate company can provide some reference to the financial risk early warning and prevention of the real estate company which is still in the stage of development in our country.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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