中国经济周期波动及经济增长持续性非对称性研究——机制转换还是结构变化

发布时间：2018-05-11 10:16

本文选题：MS—UC模型 + 机制转换　；参考：《经济问题探索》2017年02期

【摘要】：本文首先使用信息准则、LR检验及残差Q检验选择能够拟合中国真实GDP季度增长的最优MS-UC模型,检验结果表明三永久机制转换的MS-UC模型拟合最优,从而说明结构变化导致了中国经济周期波动及经济增长的非对称性。从模型估计的结果来看,中国经济周期波动可以划分为与供需管理经济政策相关的三个阶段:1992年第2季度-2007第2季度的高速增长期、2007第3季度-2011第3季度的增长换挡期以及2011第4季度至今的经济新常态时期。将MS-UC模型简化为ARIMA模型后,利用各阶段隐含脉冲响应函数分析经济增长持续性的非对称性特征可知:在供给管理为主的阶段,政策冲击具有显著的长期增长效应;而在需求管理为主的阶段,政策冲击以短期增长效应为主。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we first use the information criterion / LR test and the residual Q test to select the optimal MS-UC model which can fit the true quarterly growth of GDP in China. The test results show that the MS-UC model with three permanent mechanisms is optimal. It shows that the structural changes lead to the economic cycle fluctuation and the asymmetry of economic growth in China. From the results of the model estimation, China's economic cycle fluctuations can be divided into three stages related to the economic policy of supply and demand management: the period of rapid growth in the second quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2007 and the shift period of growth between the third quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2011 and the period from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2011. This is the new normal period of the economy. After the MS-UC model is simplified to the ARIMA model, the asymmetric characteristics of the sustained economic growth are analyzed by using the implicit impulse response function of each stage: in the stage of supply management, the policy impact has a significant long-term growth effect; In the stage of demand management, the policy impact is mainly short-term growth effect.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学;

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