动态随机一般均衡框架下预测理论的发展:文献综述与应用展望

发布时间：2018-05-13 11:35

本文选题：动态随机一般均衡模型 + 向量自回归　；参考：《理论学刊》2017年02期

【摘要】：动态随机一般均衡框架下预测理论的发展,弥补了动态随机一般均衡模型在经济结构分析和政策评估研究中的不足,不仅有助于更好地理解经济运行状况,同时也能够为政府和中央银行的政策制定提供理论支持和决策参考。随着中国经济发展步入新常态,如何进一步为政府和央行提供前瞻性的政策指导尤为重要,因此,构建包含中国宏观经济结构特质性的动态随机一般均衡模型进行预测,对于探讨国家政策的有效性、帮助政府部门灵活审慎地制定和推出旨在防止经济衰退的稳定化宏观经济调控政策具有积极的作用。
[Abstract]:The development of prediction theory under the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium makes up for the deficiency of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in economic structure analysis and policy evaluation. At the same time, it can provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for government and central bank policy-making. As China's economic development enters the new normal, how to further provide forward-looking policy guidance for the government and the central bank is particularly important. Therefore, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model containing the characteristics of China's macroeconomic structure is constructed to predict it. It plays an active role in exploring the effectiveness of national policies and helping government departments to formulate and introduce stable macroeconomic control policies aimed at preventing economic recession.
【作者单位】：东北师范大学经济学院;新罕布什尔大学经济系;
【分类号】：F224;F123.16

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