围绕路面维护的高速公路PPP项目特许期决策研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 22:29

本文选题：高速公路 + PPP　；参考：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来随着征地拆迁费用和人工材料成本的上升,高速公路建设成本不断攀升。另一方面,伴随着环境影响和使用时间推移而出现的路面劣化情况,使得路面维护需求与日俱增,政府面临着巨大的高速公路建设和维护资金压力。公私合作(PPP)模式由于能够有效利用社会资本,缓解政府财政压力,提高项目运作效率,已经越来越多地被应用到高速公路项目的建设和运营中。但在高速公路PPP项目特许期决策时往往简单估算维护费用。另一方面,特许期内社会资本方因为重视利益而缺乏对路面进行科学、及时的维护和合理投入,导致出现各种负面效应。鉴于此背景,本文选择考虑路面维护行为影响的高速公路PPP项目特许期决策问题进行研究。首先,在总结和归纳了国内外有关路面维护和特许期研究的理论之后,本文采用净现值法确定项目的特许期,选择系统动力学方法进行高速公路PPP项目特许期决策问题的研究。接着,明确研究问题边界,建立因果关系图,详细分析了路面性能和利益相关者行为与特许期决策之间的长期动态关系。通过量化相关变量,构建了围绕路面维护的高速公路PPP项目特许期决策研究系统动力学模型。然后,通过系统动力学仿真平台Vensim对模型进行检验,验证模型能够有效反应现实情况。最后,调整相关参数,对政府、社会投资者和用户行为的敏感性仿真试验,研究利益相关者行为对路面性能和特许期决策的影响。研究表明,不同利益相关者,如政府、社会投资者和用户的行为对路面性能和特许期绩效均有明显影响。政府增加补贴分配系数、社会投资者提高路面维护要求、在路面性能和收费之间用户更注重路面性能有助于提高特许期内的路面性能和特许期绩效。该研究能为政府和社会投资者决策合理的高速公路PPP项目特许期及相关路面维护方案提供良好的模拟评估手段。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of land requisition and removal costs and the cost of artificial materials, the cost of highway construction is rising. On the other hand, with the environmental impact and the passage of time, the road surface deterioration, which makes the pavement maintenance demand increasing, the government is facing a huge highway construction and maintenance funding pressure. Public-private partnership (PPP) has been applied to the construction and operation of highway projects more and more because it can effectively use social capital, relieve the pressure of government finance and improve the efficiency of project operation. However, the maintenance cost is estimated simply when the concession period of expressway PPP project is made. On the other hand, due to the lack of scientific, timely maintenance and reasonable input of the social capital in the concession period, there are various negative effects. In view of this background, this paper chooses the expressway PPP project concession decision problem which considers the pavement maintenance behavior influence to carry on the research. Firstly, after summing up and summarizing the theories of pavement maintenance and concession period at home and abroad, this paper uses net present value method to determine the concession period of the project, and selects the system dynamics method to study the decision-making problem of expressway PPP project concession period. Then, the problem boundary is studied clearly, the causality diagram is established, and the long-term dynamic relationship between pavement performance, stakeholder behavior and concession decision is analyzed in detail. By quantifying the relevant variables, the dynamic model of expressway PPP project concession decision-making system is built around pavement maintenance. Then, the system dynamics simulation platform Vensim is used to test the model to verify that the model can effectively reflect the reality. Finally, adjust the relevant parameters, the sensitivity of the government, social investors and user behavior simulation test, to study the impact of stakeholder behavior on road performance and concession decision-making. The research shows that the behaviors of different stakeholders such as government, social investors and users have a significant impact on pavement performance and concession performance. The government increases the subsidy distribution coefficient, the social investor raises the pavement maintenance request, and the user pays more attention to the pavement performance between the pavement performance and the charge is helpful to improve the pavement performance and the concession performance during the concession period. The research can provide a good simulation and evaluation method for the concession period of expressway PPP project and related pavement maintenance scheme, which can be used by government and social investors to make rational decisions.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F542.3

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