PPP模式下棚户区改造项目风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 10:51

本文选题：棚户区改造 + PPP模式　；参考：《华东交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：棚户区是我国一项历史遗留问题,棚户区问题已经严重的阻碍了我国的现代化、城市化进程,成为了目前迫切需要解决的难题。西方国家将PPP模式运用于各种基础设施建设中并取得了良好的效果。PPP模式的应用可以很好的解决政府的资金压力并有效的利用社会闲散资金,使双方达到双赢的结果。然而由于棚户区PPP改造项目参与方众多、项目较为复杂,风险因素多的特点,项目公司可能对风险认识不清、无法做出合理正确的决策,最终导致项目的失败以及项目公司不愿参与到棚户区PPP改造项目当中来。为了调动项目公司的积极性,使其有利可图,使项目参与双方达到双赢的目的,则必须要对风险进行合理的管理。本文在国内外相关研究的基础上,介绍了PPP模式以及棚户区改造的基本概念及发展现状,分析了PPP模式应用于棚户区改造项目中的可行性,对风险评估相关理论即共因失效理论、不确定性与敏感性分析理论做了简要的阐述,为本文运用的风险评估方法的引入做了铺垫。本文运用WBS-RBS法识别出棚户区PPP改造项目特有的风险因素,在此基础上,构建风险评价指标体系,运用改进的ISM-FCEM对风险进行评价。首先,运用ISM法对风险因素之间相互影响关系进行分析并得到风险层级结构图。然后,从风险的四维角度出发构建多维函数,并结合ISM风险分析结果对各风险进行打分,确定各个风险因素所占权重,进而计算得出项目的综合风险度。根据改进的ISM-FCEM法得出的各风险因素对总目标的权重值,项目公司可对风险进行更合理的分析与管理。最后,本论文进行了实证分析,验证模型的可操作性,为棚户区PPP改造项目的风险评估提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:Shantytown is a problem left over from history in China. The problem of shantytown has seriously hindered the modernization and urbanization of our country, and has become an urgent problem to be solved. The application of PPP model in various infrastructure construction in western countries can solve the pressure of government funds and make good use of social idle funds, so that both sides can achieve a win-win result. However, due to the large number of participants, complex projects and many risk factors, the project company may not understand the risk clearly and can not make a reasonable and correct decision, because of the large number of participants in the shantytown PPP renovation project. This led to the failure of the project and the reluctance of the project company to participate in the shantytown PPP renovation project. In order to arouse the enthusiasm of the project company, make it profitable, and make both sides of the project achieve the win-win goal, it is necessary to manage the risk reasonably. On the basis of domestic and foreign research, this paper introduces the basic concepts and development status of PPP model and shantytown reconstruction, and analyzes the feasibility of applying PPP model to shantytown reconstruction project. The related theories of risk assessment, that is, common cause failure theory, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis theory, are briefly expounded, which pave the way for the introduction of the risk assessment method used in this paper. In this paper, WBS-RBS method is used to identify the special risk factors of the shantytown PPP transformation project, on the basis of which, the risk evaluation index system is constructed, and the improved ISM-FCEM is used to evaluate the risk. Firstly, the relationship between risk factors and risk factors is analyzed by ISM method and the risk hierarchy structure is obtained. Then, the multi-dimension function is constructed from the view of four dimensions of risk, and each risk is graded with the result of ISM risk analysis, and the weight of each risk factor is determined, and then the comprehensive risk degree of the project is calculated. According to the weight of each risk factor to the total target, the project company can analyze and manage the risk more reasonably. Finally, this paper carries on the demonstration analysis, validates the model to be feasible, provides the certain reference for the shantytown PPP transformation project risk assessment.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F299.27

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