中国房地产投资的空间集聚机制及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 11:11

本文选题：房地产投资 + 空间集聚　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国现阶段产业结构改革的推进以及新型城镇化的建设,房地产业在国民经济中正发挥越来越重要的作用,并且房地产业已经发展成为我国国民经济的支柱性产业。随着房价的快速上涨,“近年来住房问题已成为国计民生的核心问题,对房地产业的研究一直以来都是学者研究的热点话题”。克鲁格曼构建了新经济地理学模型讨论了产业的空间集聚机制,随后越来越多的学者对区域经济的和产业发展的空间集聚现象进行了大量研究。一方面,经济的集聚发展会产生正的外部性,企业的邻近发展会增加空间溢出效应,降低运输成本和交易成本,促进经济的发展;另一方面,由于空间有限,产业的集聚发展会产生拥挤效应,产生负的外部性,抑制经济的快速发展。本文以房地产投资为视角,引用奥塔维诺提出的线性自由资本模型,结合新古典经济学和城市经济学相关理论,提出了我国房地产投资的空间集聚机制及影响因素的研究。我国房地产业是资本导向型产业,房地产业的发展与房地产投资密切相关,因此借鉴线性自由资本模型的理论机制对我国房地产投资的空间集聚机制进行了分析。理论分析发现资本收益率对资本的流向起关键作用,而资本收益率由“市场规模效应”和“市场拥挤效应”共同决定。在理论分析的基础上,本文选取了可以反映市场规模效应和市场拥挤效应的四个变量(城市人口规模、制造业规模、人均收入、市场潜能)对房地产投资的影响因素进行了定性分析和实证检验。本文首先对我国259个地级以上城市的全样本数据进行了面板数据模型检验,实证结果表明本文所选取的四个解释变量对我国房地产投资的影响均通过了显著性检验,而且现阶段,各解释变量与我国房地产投资都存在正相关;随后,本文把我国259个城市分为东部、中部和西部三大地区分别进行实证检验,结果显示,城市规模、人均收入水平等变量对东部地区城市的房地产投资的影响已经非常显著;中部地区城市人均收入与市场潜能对房地产投资的影响已非常显著,制造业规模对房地产投资的影响还没有显现;城市市场潜能是影响我国西部地区房地产投资最重要的影响因素。本文运用空间计量模型对我国房地产投资空间集聚机制进行实证检验,结果证实了线性自由资本模型对房地产投资集聚机制的解释,市场效应对房地产投资的空间集聚起决定作用,本地市场规模的扩大将吸引更多的房地产投资流入。最后基于对我国三大地区房地产投资集聚水平及主要影响因素的分析,结合我国现阶段房地产发展现状,提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of industrial structure reform and the construction of new urbanization, real estate industry is playing a more and more important role in the national economy, and the real estate industry has developed into a pillar industry of our national economy. With the rapid rise of house prices, "the housing problem has become the core issue of the national economy and people's livelihood in recent years, and the research on the real estate industry has always been a hot topic for scholars." Krugman constructed a new economic geography model to discuss the spatial agglomeration mechanism of industry. Then more and more scholars studied the spatial agglomeration phenomenon of regional economy and industrial development. On the one hand, the agglomeration and development of the economy will produce positive externalities, and the adjacent development of enterprises will increase the spatial spillover effect, reduce transport and transaction costs, and promote economic development; on the other hand, due to the limited space, The agglomeration of industry will produce crowding effect, negative externality and restrain the rapid development of economy. In this paper, from the perspective of real estate investment, the linear free capital model proposed by Otta Verno, combined with the relevant theories of neoclassical economics and urban economics, is proposed to study the spatial agglomeration mechanism and influencing factors of real estate investment in China. China's real estate industry is a capital-oriented industry. The development of real estate industry is closely related to real estate investment. Therefore, the spatial agglomeration mechanism of real estate investment in China is analyzed based on the theoretical mechanism of linear free capital model. Theoretical analysis shows that the return on capital plays a key role in the capital flow, and the return on capital is determined by "market size effect" and "market crowding effect". On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper selects four variables (urban population scale, manufacturing scale, per capita income) that can reflect market size effect and market congestion effect. The market potential) has carried on the qualitative analysis and the empirical test to the real estate investment influence factor. In this paper, first of all, the panel data model of 259 cities above the prefectural level is tested. The empirical results show that the four explanatory variables selected in this paper have passed the significance test of the impact of the four explanatory variables on the real estate investment in China. At the present stage, there is a positive correlation between the explanatory variables and real estate investment in China. Subsequently, 259 cities in China are divided into three regions: eastern, central and western. The results show that the size of the city is large. The effect of per capita income and other variables on real estate investment in eastern cities has been significant, while in central cities, the impact of per capita income and market potential on real estate investment has been very significant. The impact of manufacturing scale on real estate investment has not been shown, and the urban market potential is the most important factor affecting real estate investment in western China. This paper uses the spatial econometric model to test the spatial agglomeration mechanism of real estate investment in China, and the result proves that the linear free capital model explains the agglomeration mechanism of real estate investment. Market effect plays a decisive role in the spatial agglomeration of real estate investment. The expansion of local market size will attract more real estate investment inflows. Finally, based on the analysis of the agglomeration level of real estate investment in three regions of China and the main influencing factors, and combining with the present situation of real estate development in China, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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