珠江—西江经济带城镇化质量的时空格局演变及其驱动机理研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 19:43

本文选题：珠江—西江经济带 + 县域城镇化质量　；参考：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着区域间经济与文化交流的不断加强,城镇化发展进程对我国现代化建设具有重大意义。为了更好地推进城镇化发展进程,以提升质量为主的城镇化转型发展新阶段已成为中国社会发展的必然。本文以城镇化发展阶段、增长极等理论为研究基础,认真梳理了城镇化质量、城镇化质量评价方法、驱动机理及流域经济带城镇化质量的国内外相关文献,认为城镇化质量是反映城镇化进程给城乡协调发展带来一系列变化的系统。本文以珠江—西江经济带63个县域单元为研究对象,从经济发展、社会发展、城镇化发展潜力这3个层面构建涵盖14个指标城镇化质量综合评价体系。首先,运用改进的主成分分析法计算63个县域单元在2005-2015年间的城镇化质量综合得分,再通过城镇化质量综合得分的Moran's I指数、人均GDP的分异系数、户籍城镇人口数量的Theil指数在时序上的变化分析城镇化质量的时序演变特征,结果表明:2005-2015年间,63个县域单元的城镇化质量综合水平存在明显的内部差异,但这种整体差异随时间的变化呈减小态势。其次,运用空间探索性分析方法研究城镇化质量综合水平在2005、2010、2015年的空间分异特征,结果表明:63个县域单元的城镇化质量综合水平一直存在明显的两极分化,上游区域存在大片的城镇化质量低值区,而中下游区域则零散出现城镇化质量发展的增长极。再次,建立了含有6个解释变量的城镇化质量驱动因子模型,并选择空间面板数据模型进行估计,结果表明:农业GDP占比、城乡居民收入比对城镇化质量产生负效应,行政力、市场力和内源力分别为提升城镇化质量的基础力量、关键力量和根本力量。最后,针对珠江—西江经济带城镇化质量存在严重两极分化的问题,本文从经济社会发展、基础设施和公共服务设施建设、提高人口质量等5个方面提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous strengthening of regional economic and cultural exchanges, the development of urbanization is of great significance to the modernization of our country. In order to promote the development of urbanization, it has become a necessity for China's social development to improve the quality of urbanization in the new stage of transformation and development. Based on the theories of urbanization development stage, growth pole and so on, this paper makes a careful study of urbanization quality, urbanization quality evaluation methods, driving mechanism and relevant literature at home and abroad on urbanization quality of watershed economic belt. It is considered that the quality of urbanization is a system that reflects the process of urbanization and brings a series of changes to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. In this paper, 63 county units of Zhujiang Xijiang Economic Belt are taken as the research objects, and a comprehensive evaluation system of urbanization quality covering 14 indexes is constructed from the three aspects of economic development, social development and urbanization development potential. Firstly, the improved principal component analysis method is used to calculate the comprehensive score of urbanization quality in 63 county units from 2005 to 2015. Then, through the Moran's I index of urbanization quality comprehensive score, the differentiation coefficient of GDP per capita is calculated. The change of Theil Index in time Series of the number of residents registered in cities and towns the time series evolution characteristics of urbanization quality are analyzed. The results show that there are obvious internal differences in the comprehensive level of urbanization quality among 63 county units from 2005 to 2015. But the variation of the whole difference with time is decreasing. Secondly, the spatial differentiation characteristics of urbanization quality comprehensive level in 2005 / 2010 and 2015 are studied by using spatial exploratory analysis method. The results show that the urbanization quality comprehensive level of 63 county units has been obviously polarized. There are large areas with low urbanization quality in the upstream region, while the growth poles of urbanization quality development are scattered in the middle and lower reaches of the region. Thirdly, the urbanization quality driving factor model with six explanatory variables is established, and the spatial panel data model is selected to estimate it. The results show that the proportion of agricultural GDP, the income ratio of urban and rural residents have a negative effect on the quality of urbanization, and the administrative power. Market power and endogenous power are the basic, key and fundamental forces to improve the quality of urbanization. Finally, aiming at the serious polarization of urbanization quality in Zhujiang Xijiang Economic Zone, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from five aspects: economic and social development, construction of infrastructure and public service facilities, and improvement of population quality.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27

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